Millwall have been overperforming in the 2021-22 EFL Championship. The main reason for this overperformance has been their defense which has outperformed its xGA. However, goals win you games. And in this article, we will be covering Millwall’s main man for goals, Benik Afobe. Having joined on loan from Stoke City this season, he has been the top goal-scorer for Millwall with eight goals to his name. He has not hit double figures for goals since the 2014-15 season when he was playing for Wolverhampton Wanderers.
As you can see from the above chart, Benik Afobe has performed above average in several categories, but he is nowhere close to the best marksmen in the league. For instance, the Congolese has netted 0.29 goals per game, which is nearly one goal in four games, whereas the best performers regularly get above 0.5 goals per game. He has also taken less than two shots per game which is not at all enough if you are to hit 20 goals a season or at least 15 strikes. But to give him some credit, he does hit 49% of his shots on target. Afobe just needs to do it more frequently for Millwall.
All but one of Benik Afobe’s goals for Millwall this season have come from inside the box. He has taken only 11 shots from outside the box this season. So he does have the ability to get into dangerous positions. He has missed a few big chances, which had an xG of over 0.35, but most of his shots have tested the opposition keepers. Afobe has taken 57 shots so far this season, which means he is scoring a goal every seven shots.
In the above chart, we can see that Benik Afobe has rarely created a threat for Millwall this season, but his role is to just finish off the chances that his teammates create for him, hence the low xT value. But he does create threats when it counts the most. His highest xT values come just before half-time and at the death. His xT map shows that he does not create much with the ball except when he is in and around the opponents’ penalty box.
Benik Afobe needs to fire a lot more frequently if Millwall are to finish the season strong. Mathematically, Millwall still have a chance to compete in the promotion play-offs. But for that, they need to have a strong attack, and Afobe will need to shoulder the responsibility of scoring the goals.
