EFL Championship 2022/23 leaders, Burnley will play host to relegation-threatened Huddersfield Town. The Clarets have a 12 points lead at the top of the table with 15 matches remaining in the current season. Huddersfield Town, on the other hand, are four points away from safety. They were at the bottom a few weeks back and have gained one or two places.
The home team have won 21, drawn ten, and lost two matches this season. They have scored 64 goals and average around two goals per match. Burnley’s average xG rate is a bit low at 1.43 per match. The defence has conceded 28 goals and these are the least numbers in the league. The pizza chart above shows the percentile rank of the team. Burnley haven’t been the best team in the league according to the stats. They have performed decently in most of the departments and this is the primary reason behind their success.
Huddersfield Town have struggled this season. The team has won eight, drawn seven, and lost 17 matches this season. They have netted 30 goals and conceded 43 in return. Huddersfield averages 0.96 xG per match. The pizza chart shows that the team is struggling everywhere on the field. They are unable to keep the ball and do not create enough threats in the attack.
We now look at some of the stats that could predict the outcome of the match.
Numbers in the attack
Burnley have been one of the most attacking sides in the league. They create 28.85 positional attacks and 1.58 counterattacks per match. In their matches, the Clarets take 11.79 shots on average and have a 39.4% accuracy rate. The xG map above shows that most of the goals have been scored by flooding the penalty box. These shot attempts have been made from the edge of the six-yard box.
The Clarets average 15 entries into the opposition penalty box per 90 minutes. These are usually made to get on the end of the crosses or passes played into the penalty box. Huddersfield are struggling to do the same and are behind in the league table.
The visitors create 24.03 positional attacks and 1.31 counterattacks per match. They struggle to take shots and only average 8.16 shots with a 41.8% accuracy rate. Huddersfield Town also like to score goals from similar positions but a lack of numbers have led to these struggles.
Another reason behind these low numbers is their inability to recover the ball in dangerous areas. Burnley nears around 400 high regains, while the visitors are sitting on 233. Other than this, Burnley have made 126 dangerous recoveries, which is double what Huddersfield Town have made. These high regains creates pressure on the opponents and often lead to a goal.
Nathan Tella is enjoying his loan spell at Burnley. The Southampton youngster has scored 12 goals and provided two assists this season. Post the World Cup break, the forward has netted six goals including a hat-trick against Preston North End. He features on the right side and attempts most of his shots from the centre. The forward has found the corner of the goal. His clinical finishing makes him the key player in the match.
Burnley will be without Jay Rodriguez and Benson Manuel in the attack. Taylor Harwood-Bellis will be an absentee from the defence.
Huddersfield Town have a few injury concerns. Lee Nicholls, Duane Holmes and a few others are set to miss the match.
As per the 1×2 betting odds, Burnley have an odds rate of 1.43 to win the match. They are the favourites due to their form throughout the season and Huddersfield Town’s struggles. For the over/under lines, a maximum of two goals have been scored in Burnley’s last three matches. There are chances that this might end up in a low-scoring match.
Vincent Kompany’s men are marching slowly towards the EFL Championship title. They have plenty of resources in the team and are able to get the results from their matches. This match can turn out to be an easy win for the Clarets.
Visuals via TFA data viz engine