On Saturday the 7th of May 2022, Bournemouth will take on Millwall at the Vitality Stadium on the final matchday of the EFL Championship. The last time these two teams met was back in November 2021 when they played out a 1-1 draw at the Den. Heading into this fixture, Bournemouth sealed automatic promotion with a 1-0 home win over Nottingham Forest, and Millwall won 3-0 at home against already relegated Peterborough United.

Bournemouth xGA

Bournemouth come into this game after winning 1-0 against Nottingham Forest. Kieffer Moore scored the only goal of the game. This win will take Bournemouth back to the Premier League after a period of two seasons. With one game left in the season, Bournemouth’s record reads as follows: 24 wins, 13 draws and nine losses with a goal difference of +34. Bournemouth’s defence has overperformed this season, having let in seven goals fewer than expected. Their xGA was 46, but they have conceded just 39 goals.

Bournemouth shot map

Seen in the above chart is the shot map of Bournemouth in this EFL Championship campaign. Dominic Solanke is the team’s leading goalscorer, and he has a chance to hit the 30-goal mark. Philip Billing, Jaidon Anthony and Jamal Lowe have provided Solanke with the much-needed support on a few occasions. Overall, the Cherries have netted 72 goals from 556 shots, averaging 7.72 shots per goal scored.

Bournemouth xT creation zone

Jaidon Anthony has been Bournemouth’s most successful threat creator this season in the EFL Championship from both open play as well as set-pieces. The Cherries have used both the flanks to generate the threat. Philip Billing has provided the most assists for the team, with nine to his name. Ryan Christie, Dominic Solanke and Jaidon Anthony have also produced six assists or more.

Millwall xGA

Millwall are heading into this match having brushed aside the relegated Peterborough United 3-0. Benik Afobe, George Saville and an own goal from Josh Knight were enough for the Lions. Thanks to this win, Millwall are still in with a mathematical chance to make the promotion play-offs. The Lions’ record stands at 18 wins, 15 draws and 12 losses. Millwall have been one of the best performing defences in this season’s EFL Championship relative to xGA. They have an xGA of 65, but they have conceded only 44 – a massive overperformance of 21.

Millwall Benchmarking def

This defensive overperformance by Millwall can be seen in the above chart. The Lions have won the fourth most defensive duels, the most aerial duels, the sixth most recoveries and the second most percentage of aerial duels won.

Having sealed automatic promotion, Bournemouth can opt to rotate their squad. But for Millwall, only a win will give them any chance of getting into the promotion play-off spots, although their fate is not in their hands.