EFL Championship leaders Burnley will host West Bromwich Albion in one of the biggest matches of round 28. The hosts are on top of their game and are the favourites to win the EFL Championship this season. The visitors, on the other hand, are on a rich run of form, and that has taken them into the play-off positions. This is likely to be one of the biggest matches of the weekend.
Burnley are on a seven-match winning streak in the league. They have won 17, lost eight, and drawn two matches this season. They are the highest goalscorers in the league with 53 in total and the defence has conceded 25 in return. The Clarets average 1.33 xG and 1.13 xGA per match. Burnley are unbeaten at home.
West Bromwich Albion are on a four-match winning streak. They have won 11, drawn eight, and lost eight matches this season. Albion have managed to score 37 goals with an average xG rate of 1.76. Their defence has conceded 28 goals, with an average xGA rate of 1.02. West Brom have won four of their last five matches away from home.
We now look at some of the stats that could predict the outcome of the match.
Season so far
These two teams have been top performers in different departments. The above viz shows the percentile rank of the teams in comparison to other teams as well as each other. It can be observed that both teams have an edge over each other in different stats. Burnley keeps more possession of the ball, scores more goals, and likes to press high up the field. West Brom, on the other hand, have a high xG rate and makes more entries into the final third. They also like to cross the ball.
A counterattacking affair?
Both teams like to stay on the front foot and attack their opponents. Burnley averages 28.78 positional attacks and 1.67 counterattacks per match. The team takes 11.37 shots per match and has an accuracy rate of 41.3%. Kompany’s men win 5.5 corners per match and are able to take shots 22.7% of the time. At home, the average positional attack goes up to 31.86, and the number of shots averages 13, with a 41.2% accuracy rate. They win around 6.17 corners at home per match.
West Bromwich Albion, on the other hand, creates 34.8 positional attacks and two counterattacks per match. They take 12.63 shots and have an accuracy rate of 34.9%. On their travels, the team creates 31.69 counterattacks and two counterattacks. They take 10.5 shots and have an accuracy rate of 32.8%. Albion wins 6.57 corners on average, and on their travels, they average seven corners per match.
The above viz shows that these two teams have good efficiency in counterattacks. This means that both managers will be aware of the threat that the opposition carries and will look to deal with it.
High-pressing affair
This is likely to be a highly pressing affair between the two teams. West Bromwich Albion have the best pressing efficiency rate in the league, while Burnley are not much behind them. Both teams average just above nine fouls per match. The match could see a few bookings.
West Brom’s aerial threat
West Bromwich Albion will carry the aerial threat in this match. They have the second-best record for winning aerial duels. Albion contests 59.37 aerial duels per match, while Burnley contests 57.44 aerial duels per match. West Bromwich Albion likes to put a lot of crosses into the opposition’s penalty box. They average 21.07 crosses per match, while their opponents average 16.15 crosses per match. Albion will look to supply a few balls into the penalty box and beat Burnley’s defence.
Key Players
Josh Brownhill is the creative force in Claret’s lineup. He is active on set-piece duties and has six assists to his name. The above viz shows that Brownhill likes to deliver these key passes from the right side. He will look to find space in West Brom’s defence.
Daryl Dike will lead Albion’s line in this match. He will be the main threat to Burnley’s defence. The striker has scored two goals in the last two matches. He has taken ten shots, of which three have been on target. The player has found space inside and just near the opposition’s 6-yard box. He will look to get into such goal-scoring positions and score in three games in a row.
Team news
Burnley will still be without Taylor Harwood-Bellis for this match. Vitinho is also expected the miss this outing.
West Bromwich Albion will still be without Kyle Bartley and Brandon Thomas-Asante.
Betting Analysis
The 1×2 odds are in favour of Burnley. Their odds are around 2.15, while West Brom averages around 3.5 odds for this match. Both teams are in good form, which is why the odds are so high. As for the over/under lines, the rate for over 2.5 goals is around 2.25. The last meeting between the two teams ended in a 1-1 draw. There are chances that more goals might be scored in this match.
Burnley will look to keep their five-point lead intact at the top of the table. They haven’t lost a single home game and are slight favourites against this Albion side. Albion, on the other hand, are also a team in form. Burnley will have to stay at the top of their game to take three points.
Visuals via TFA data viz engine
