On Saturday 2nd April 2022, 11th placed Coventry City will host sixth-placed Blackburn Rovers at the City of Coventry Stadium in the EFL Championship. In the reverse fixture back in October 2021, it was a 2-2 draw at Ewood Park. Joe Rothwell and Sam Gallagher scored for Blackburn, and Tyler Walker’s goal and an own goal from Thomas Kaminski saw Coventry fight back in the second half. Coming into this game, Coventry drew 1-1 with Derby, and Blackburn lost 0-1 to Reading.
Coventry City come into this game having drawn 1-1 against Derby County. Matthew Godden scored for Coventry in the game. This result leaves Coventry with a record of 15 wins, ten draws, and 13 losses. xG predicted Coventry to score 58 times until this point in the season. But they have massively underperformed by netting only 49 times.
The above viz is Coventry’s shot map this season from all plays, including set-pieces. There are several big orange and red circles, meaning they have missed quite a few good goalscoring opportunities, which probably explains the underperformance in front of the goal. Though two players have reached double figures in goals, nobody from the rest of the squad has scored even four goals.
Gustavo Hamer is Coventry’s most successful threat creator in this campaign, from open play as well as set-pieces. His set-piece threat comes mostly from corner kicks. The next best threat creator for Coventry is defender Todd Kane.
Blackburn lost their previous game 0-1 to Reading coming into this match. This defeat means Blackburn have now lost 12 games this season, the most of any top-six team in the league. They have won 17 and drawn ten matches. Blackburn have conceded 39 times this season, but xGA predicted them to ship 43 goals until this point in the season. So, one possible reason why Blackburn are in the top six is because of their overperforming defense.
The above chart shows how well Blackburn have performed relative to the other teams in the league. Blackburn rank below average in three categories under the passing and progression column – assists per 90, expected assists (xA) per 90, and key passes per 90. They rank below the 60th percentile in goals per 90 and xG per 90.
This clash is between two teams in the top half of the table, but both the teams have been inconsistent of late. In their last five games, Coventry City and Blackburn Rovers have lost three games each. Both teams will want to start winning games regularly, especially as both teams still have a mathematical chance to play in the promotion play-offs.