On Saturday, Hull City welcome Luton Town to the MKM Stadium in the EFL Championship. In the reverse fixture back in October 2021, Luton won 1-0 thanks to a goal from Elijah Adebayo. Coming into this game, Luton earned a big 4-0 win against Preston North End, and Hull City won 2-0 away at Coventry City.

Hull City xGA

Hull City come into this game with a 2-0 away win at Coventry City. Richard Smallwood and Ryan Longman scored for Hull City in the previous game. This victory means Hull have 11 wins, eight draws, and 19 losses to their name this season. Hull have shipped 41 goals this season, but xGA predicted them to let in 53 goals until this point in the campaign, a sizeable overachievement for the team.

Hull City shot map

Despite the solidity of Hull at the back, they struggle going forward. They have scored the third-fewest goals of any team this season (only Peterborough United and Barnsley have scored fewer), and the shot map of Hull seen above shows exactly why. They have missed several big goal-scoring opportunities this season in front of the goal from open play (the big orange and red circles). No Hull player has even reached double figures in goals this season, with their top scorer having eight goals to his name.

Hull City xT creation zones

Callum Elder is Hull’s most successful threat creator this season. Most of his threat comes from corners. From open play, it is Lewie Coyle who creates the most threat. George Honeyman also created significant xT from corners for Hull this season.

Luton xG

Luton Town come into this game having destroyed Preston 4-0. Luke Berry’s brace, a Fred Onyedinma goal, and an own goal from Bambo Diaby saw them thrash the team from Lancashire. This big win means Luton now have 17 wins, nine draws, and 11 losses to their name. Luton’s xG shows that they should have netted 51 goals by now in this season, but they have slightly overachieved, having scored 53 times.

Luton Team profile

Luton have the third most successful attack this season, behind Fulham and Bournemouth. Still, in a few categories, they are performing either average or close to average. A few categories in which they rank below the 60th percentile are goals per 90, passes per 90, progressive runs per 90, key passes per 90, and smart passes per 90. If Luton manage to improve their creativity for the rest of their season, they could end up with a lot more goals which could propel them to an automatic promotion spot.

Going into the game, Luton are the favorites to win. But Hull can keep Luton’s attack at bay as they have an overperforming defense. This match will be interesting to watch.