On Saturday 2nd April 2022, the third-placed Luton Town will take on 10th placed Millwall in the EFL Championship. In the reverse fixture back in October 2021, it was Luton that came out victorious with a brace from Harry Cornick. Coming into this match, Luton won 3-1 away at Hull City, and Millwall lost 0-2 away at Stoke City.
Luton Town come into this game having taken a 3-1 away victory at Hull City. Elijah Adebayo, Harry Cornick, and James Bree netted the goals for Luton. This win means Luton now have a record of 18 wins, nine draws, and 11 losses so far this season. xG predicted Luton to score 52 goals until now, but they have outperformed this number by netting 56 goals.
Shown above is the shot map of Luton from open play. Usually, they have been very clinical in front of the goal. But occasionally, they have missed big goalscoring opportunities, as seen by the fairly large orange and red circles.
James Bree is Luton’s most successful threat creator in this campaign, with a score of over 15. He created threats from open play as well as set-pieces. He has three assists to his name, the joint-most for the team. The next best threat creator for the team is Kal Naismith.
Millwall lost their most recent match against Stoke City 0-2 coming into this game. This means Millwall’s record now stands at 15 wins, 12 draws, and 11 losses. But this defeat should not discourage Millwall as they are massive overachievers at the back. xGA predicted Millwall to concede 55 goals, but they have shipped only 36 goals. Because of this overperformance, they have a positive goal difference.
But the defensive overperformance should not mask the attacking woes Millwall have relative to the rest of the league. Here is their percentile rank in some categories – 43rd for goals per 90, 44th for assists per 90, 51st for xG per 90, 54th for xA per 90, 45th for smart passes per 90, and 52nd for key passes per 90, to name a few. Millwall will need to start performing going forward, if they are to qualify for the promotion play-offs, which is still mathematically possible.
This match is a clash between an overperforming attack and a massively overperforming defense. A win for Luton Town will ensure they keep the pressure on their promotion play-off rivals. Millwall, also, will want to win this encounter to get closer to the promotion play-offs and derail Luton’s chances to compete in the said play-offs.