On Wednesday, the eighth-placed Luton Town take on 14th placed Preston North End at Kenilworth Road Stadium in the EFL Championship. In the reverse fixture back in October 2021, a brace from Emil Riis Jakobsen sealed the victory for Preston North End. Luton Town come into this game with a 1-2 loss at home against Queens Park Rangers, and Preston North End come into this match with a goalless draw at Cardiff City.

Luton xG

Luton Town lost their previous match 1-2 at home against QPR. Cameron Jerome scored for the team, but it was a disappointing loss for Luton. This defeat means that Luton have 16 wins, nine draws, and 11 losses to their name. xG predicted Luton to score 49 goals this campaign so far, and they have done exactly that.

Luton Shot map

From open play this season, Luton have scored a few goals, but they have also missed quite a few big chances, particularly from within ten yards of goal. Elijah Adebayo and Harry Cornick have scored 13 and nine goals, respectively, for Luton. But they have not received any real support from other teammates. Luke Berry and Allan Campbell are the joint-third top goalscorers for Luton with just four goals each.

Luton xT creation zones

James Bree is Luton’s most successful threat creator this season, both from open play as well as from set-pieces. Most of his threat comes from corner kicks as well as crosses into the opposition’s penalty area. His score is more than twice that of the next best threat creator for the team – Kal Naismith.

Preston xG

Preston North End come into this game with a 0-0 draw against Cardiff City away from home. This result leaves Preston with a record of 12 wins, 15 draws, and 10 losses. Preston have the most draws of any team in the division this season, which may explain their mid-table status. Preston’s xG numbers are 45 goals scored, but in reality, they have underperformed as they have scored only 40 goals.

Preston team profile

Preston’s underperformance in attack can be summed up by looking at the above chart. They have ranked below the 50th percentile in three categories – goals per 90, assists per 90, and key passes per 90. Not only have Preston underperformed on their xG numbers, but they have also underachieved on their xA numbers. Preston also take fewer than 10 shots per 90, which could explain their underperformance on their xG.

Luton will want to strengthen their hopes for promotion play-offs by winning this game, and Preston will want to win this game to make it two wins out of their last three matches.