On 6th April 2022, eighth-placed Nottingham Forest will take on 11th placed Coventry City in the EFL Championship. In the reverse fixture back in August 2021, Coventry got a last-minute winner from Kyle McFadzean in a 2-1 win. Coming into this game, Nottingham Forest won 4-1 away at Blackpool, and Coventry City drew 2-2 with Blackburn Rovers.
Nottingham Forest come into this game with a 4-1 thrashing of Blackpool away from home. Zinckernagel and Surridge scored one a piece, and Brennan Johnson netted a brace in that game. This win means Nottingham Forest now have 17 wins, and 10 draws and losses each. xG predicted Forest to score 51 goals until now, but they have overperformed by netting 57 times.
Seen above is the shot map of Nottingham Forest this season from open play. The overperformance in attack can be seen, as they have rarely hit big chances off target. But they have done well in goalscoring for the most part. Their top goalscorer, Brennan Johnson, is converting shots to goals at a rate of five shots per goal scored.
Philip Zinckernagel is Nottingham Forest’s most successful threat creator this season. But most of his threat comes from set-pieces. The most successful threat creator from open play is defender Scott McKenna. Brennan Johnson is not only the team’s top scorer but also the top assist provider, with five to his name.
Coventry City are coming off a 2-2 draw against Blackburn Rovers. A stoppage-time equalizer from Viktor Gyokores saved Coventry from defeat. This draw leaves Coventry with 15 wins, 11 draws, and 13 losses to their name. Coventry have underperformed in attack this season, as xG predicted them to have scored 59 by now, but Coventry have netted only 51 times.
This underperformance in attack can be seen in the above chart. Coventry rank in the 53rd percentile for goals scored per 90 but rank in the 69th percentile for xG per 90. It is similar as far as assists per 90 and xA per 90 are concerned. Coventry rank in the 55th percentile for assists per game but rank 62nd for xA per game. Coventry produce only about three key passes per game, but Coventry’s pass accuracy into the final third stands at 64% putting them in the top 12%.
This match is between a team that is overperforming in attack (Nottingham Forest) and a team that is underperforming in attack (Coventry City). But football is played on the pitch and anything can happen. Nottingham Forest are still hoping to make the promotion play-offs this season, and Coventry will be looking to derail Forest’s hopes.