On Wednesday, ninth-placed Nottingham Forest will take on fifth-placed Queens Park Rangers at the City Ground in the EFL Championship. In the reverse fixture back in October 2021, both the teams played out a 1-1 draw, with Lyndon Dykes scoring for QPR and Jack Colback netting for Nottingham Forest. Coming into this game, Nottingham Forest thumped Reading 4-0 at home, and QPR won 2-1 away at Luton Town.
Nottingham Forest are coming off a morale-boosting 4-0 victory against Reading. Ryan Yates, Sam Surridge, and a Keinan Davies brace ensured that Nottingham Forest dominated the game. This victory leaves Nottingham Forest with 15 wins, 10 draws and losses each. xG predicted Nottingham Forest to let 41 goals so far this season, but they have conceded only 34, a sizeable overachievement.
The shot map seen above displays Forest’s shots taken from open play. Inside the opposition’s six-yard box, they have been very clinical, scoring more than missing. Outside the six-yard box, they have at times missed easy chances to score goals. Two Nottingham Forest players have reached double figures in goals this season – Lewis Grabban and Brennan Johnson. The top five goal-scorers for the team have generally outperformed their xG output.
Philip Zinckernagel is Nottingham Forest’s most successful threat creator in this campaign. But most of his threat comes from set-pieces, particularly his corners. From open play, it is Scott McKenna who leads the way for Nottingham Forest. Brennan Johnson has provided the most assists for Nottingham Forest this season.
Queens Park Rangers are coming off a big away 2-1 victory against the top half of the table rivals, Luton Town. Andre Gray and Robert Dickie were the goalscorers for QPR in that game. This win means QPR have 17 wins, eight draws, and 11 losses. QPR have scored 52 goals this season, whereas their xG output expected them to score only 42 goals. This means QPR are overperforming on their xG output.
Despite their overachievement in attack, QPR are performing average or close to average in several key metrics, including goals per 90, xG per 90, assists per 90, xA per 90, and key passes per 90, to name a few.
Nottingham Forest are four points off the promotion play-off spots. A victory will do them good as they will close the gap between teams that are above them on the points table. Meanwhile, QPR are in the promotion play-off spot and will look to win to put pressure on other teams in the promotion play-off spots.