Burnley will travel to the MKM Stadium and take on Hull City in the EFL Championship. The Clarets are sitting comfortably at the top of the league table and are only a few wins away from lifting the title. Hull City, on the other hand, are far from safe and are likely to finish in the mid-table. Both teams played to a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture. We now have a look at some of the stats from the current season that could predict the outcome of the match.
Hull City have won 12, drawn ten, and lost 14 matches this season. They are unbeaten in their last two matches. Hull City have netted 41 goals and conceded 49. They have a low xG rate of 1.09 per match. The above viz shows the percentile rank of the Tigers in comparison to other teams in the EFL Championship. Hull City have a low percentile rank in the attack. They are ranked decently for making passes and might find it difficult to do so against this Burnley side.
Burnley have won 23, drawn 11, and lost only two matches this season. The Clarets have scored 71 goals with an average xG rate of 1.48, and the defence has conceded 28 in return. Burnley are at the top of the table, but their percentile rank is not the best in every department. They are ranked above average in most of the stats mentioned above.
Hull City’s threat on the counter
Hull City will face a tough opponent in midweek. They will need to rely on their strengths to take any points from the match. The team will focus on catching Burnley on the counter and scoring against them. In their last match, Hull City created five counterattacks and attempted three shots from these attacks. The Tigers attempted 11 shots and had three on target. They were unable to penetrate the opposition penalty box more often, and that only resulted in a single goal.
Overall, the team averages 25.61 positional attacks and 1.69 counterattacks per match. They attempt 9.61 shots and have a 31.5% accuracy rate. Hull City will look to perform above average in this match.
Hull City likes to progress down the left flank. In the last match, most of the ball progressions took place from that particular side. They will once again look to target from that particular side.
What makes Burnley the favourite?
Burnley scored three goals past Wigan Athletic in their last match. The Clarets created 49 positional attacks and two counterattacks. Kompany’s men took 25 shots and managed to hit the target seven times. They attacked from all sides and created constant threats towards the opposition’s goal.
Overall, Burnley creates 29.78 positional attacks and 1.53 counterattacks per match. They take 12.39 shots per match and have a 39.2% accuracy rate.
Burnley players progressed with the ball mainly from the right flank in the last game. However, they were also active on the opposite wing as well. The players attempted 33 crosses in the last match and 12 were delivered. They will once again look to trouble Hull City’s defence.
Another reason why Burnley have been at the top of their game is the ability of the players to make high regains. Burnley have made 141 dangerous recoveries and averages four recoveries per match. These often lead to a goal-scoring chance and Burnley will look to create more chances in this game.
Key players
Burnley have scored 13 goals in their last seven games. Of these 13 goals, Nathan Tella has scored five goals. He scored a hat-trick against Preston North End on 11th February and then was unable to score in the next five matches. The Southampton loanee scored a goal after a month in the last match and then went on to score his second goal of the match. Tella is not the top goal-scorer with 14 to his name. He has taken 18 shots in the last seven games and all the shots have been attempted from decent scoring positions. He will look to add more goals to his tally in this match.
Team news
Benjamin Tetteh will be a huge absentee for the home side. He will miss the match alongside Cyrus Christie and Ryan Woods.
Jay Rodriguez, Manuel Benson, and Josh Brownhill are nearing returns but not in this match.
Betting analysis
As per the 1×2 betting odds, Burnley are the favourites to win the match. They have a high odds rate of 1.85. This is because of their inconsistent results in the last few matches. The match ending in a draw has an odds rate of 3.4. Expect the under lines to thrive in this match as Burnley have failed to score goals regularly in their recent games. Hull City have also maintained a tight defence in their recent fixtures.
Burnley are likely to take three points away from this match. They have been the better-attacking side and are will look to show domination against the Tigers.
Visuals via Wyscout and the TFA data viz engine
