Luton Town will look to maintain their fine run when they take on Bristol City in the EFL Championship. The home team have won back-to-back matches, and their last win came against Sheffield United, who are sitting second in the league table. Bristol City are also coming off a win against Blackpool. The last meeting between the two teams ended 2-0 in favour of Bristol City. Let’s have a look at some of the stats that could predict the outcome of the match.
Luton Town’s run for promotion and Bristol City’s heading to a mid-table finish
Luton Town are sitting fourth in the league table with 16 wins, 12 draws, and eight losses. The team has been a bit inconsistent but has given some impressive performances, which have kept them in contention for promotion. Luton Town have scored 44 goals and conceded 34. They average 1.33 xG per match. The above viz shows the percentile rank of Luton Town in comparison to other teams in the EFL Championship. Luton Town are ranked above average in the attacking and defensive departments. They have struggled to keep the ball and rotate it.
Bristol City sits 13th in the league table with 12 wins, 12 draws, and 12 losses. The team has scored 45 goals with an average xG rate of 1.32. Their defence has leaked 43 goals in total. Bristol City have an average percentile rank in some of the departments, while they have been ranked below average in other departments.
Overall, these two teams have similar stats and rankings. They have scored almost the same number of goals. Luton Town have slightly better defensive stats, and that has kept them in contention for promotion.
Similar numbers in attack
Luton Town have scored one goal less than Bristol City in the EFL Championship 2022/23. These two teams also have a similar xG rate per match.
Luton Town have a slightly better number than their opponents. They average 33.5 positional attacks and 1.14 counterattacks per match. Luton players take 10.72 shots and have a 33.2% accuracy rate. In the last match, they created 28 positional attacks and only attempted five shots. Carlton Morris made full use of the opportunity and scored the only goal of the game.
Bristol City creates 29.06 positional attacks and 1.64 counterattacks per match. They take 9.33 shots and have a 33% accuracy rate. In the last match, Bristol City created 38 positional attacks and eight counterattacks. They dominated the match and attempted 18 shots. However, only three were on target, and nine were blocked by the opposition’s defence. Bristol City needs to be more clinical in this match if they want to win it.
Can Luton Town defend against high-flying Bristol City?
Bristol City might be sitting behind Luton Town in the league table. However, recently they have given some impressive performances in the attack and that can concern Luton’s defence. Luton Town’s defence has kept a clean sheet in the last two matches and they won’t allow their opponents to go past them that easily. Throughout the season, Luton Town have made 11 blocks and an average of three blocks per match. A few blocks have been made in the six-yard box and they will once again put their body on the line against this Bristol City side.
Key player
Carlton Morris is enjoying his dream season in the EFL Championship. The 27-year-old forward has scored 15 goals and provided five assists in 35 league games. He has been on top of his game in recent matches and has scored four goals in six matches. He averages three shots per match in the last six matches and has often found space inside the six-yard box to convert these chances. After scoring a goal in each of his last two games, the forward will look to score in his third-consecutive match.
Team news
Pelly-Ruddock Mpanzu is expected to miss this match. Dan Potts, Luke Freeman, and Reece Burke will also remain on the sidelines.
Bristol City have a few injury concerns. However, Matthew James could make a return to the team after missing a few matches due to an ankle injury.
Betting analysis
According to the 1×2 betting odds, Luton Town are the favourites to walk away with a win. They have an odds rate of around 1.83. Bristol City are the least favourite to gather any point from the match and have high odds of around 4.5. The last meeting between the two teams experienced two goals. Expect this to be a tight game and the under lines are expected to thrive.
Luton Town will look to avenge their loss from the last visit. They have found ways to get positive results and a win is a necessity to keep them in contention for playoffs.
Visuals via Wyscout and the TFA data viz engine
