Luton Town and Millwall will play against each other for the first time in the EFL Championship in 2022/23. Both teams sit in playoff positions and are looking for promotion to the top division. Millwall sits in fifth position and have 53 points. Luton Town are level on points with them but are a place behind. The only thing that separates both teams in the league table is the number of goals scored. Millwall have scored one goal more than Luton Town, and that is the only thing that separates both teams. We now look at some of the stats that could predict the outcome of the match.
Luton Town sits sixth in the EFL Championship table with 14 wins, 11 draws, and eight losses. They have scored 40 goals and conceded 32. The average xG rate of the team is 1.3 per match.
Millwall have won 15, drawn eight, and lost ten matches this season. The Lions have scored 41 goals and average 1.47 xG per match. Their defence has conceded 33 goals this season.
The above viz shows the percentile rank of the team in comparison to each other as well as in comparison to other teams in the league. This shows that Millwall have an edge over other teams in most of the departments. Luton Town are a side that has a high press success rate. Both teams haven’t been at their best and are ranked below average in some of the stats mentioned above.
A narrow victory in the previous match
Both teams earned a 1-0 away victory in their respective matches on the weekend.
Luton Town visited Birmingham City and came away with three points. The team created 34 positional attacks and attempted ten shots in the match with a 50% accuracy rate. On average the team creates 33.48 positional attacks and attempts 10.7 shots per match. Luton Town were able to edge past their opponents. The ball progression chart shows that Luton Town players used the full width of the field on the left side.
Millwall won their match 1-0 away at Stoke City. They created 14 positional attacks and attempted seven shots, with only one on target. The Lions average 28.9 positional attacks and attempt 11.85 shots per match. Millwall are more clinical with their attacks and holds a high efficiency in these attacks. They were on the backfoot in the last match but managed to edge past them.
Luton Town signed Carlton Morris from Barnsley at the start of the season. The 27-year-old has been one of the best signings of the summer. He has scored 13 goals and provided five assists in 32 appearances. The striker averages three shots per match and has scored five goals since the World Cup. He will look to add more goals to his tally in this match.
Tom Bradshaw will lead the line for Millwall in this match. He has been their most in-form player since the World Cup. The striker has netted 11 goals this season and seven came after the World Cup. Bradshaw is level on goals with his teammate Zian Flemming and they will look to combine and earn an away victory in this match.
Reece Burke and Morris suffered injuries in the previous match. They are expected to miss this match.
There are no new injury concerns in both camp.
As per the 1×2 betting odds, Luton Town are the favourites to win the match. They have betting odds of around 2.3 to win the match. The next possibility is that the match might end as a draw and the betting odds for a draw are at 3.1. Millwall’s chances of winning the match have an odds rate of around 3.4. As for the over/under goals, both teams have struggled to find the back of the net. The under rates might thrive in this fixture.
This is likely to be a tight game and the result can go in anyone’s favour. Despite sitting in the top six, these two teams are yet to show why they are capable of getting a promotion. A win for either team will keep them in contention for making the playoffs.
Visuals via TFA data viz engine