Blackburn Rovers will look to make it five wins in a row when they take on Stoke City in the EFL Championship. Rovers are on an eight-match unbeaten run, which has increased their chances of making it to the playoffs. Stoke City, on the other hand, are inconsistent, but they are clear of the relegation zone.
Stoke City have won 12, drawn seven, and lost 16 matches this season. The Potters have scored 44 goals and have an average xG of 1.41 this season. Their defence has conceded 42 goals. In the last eight matches, Stoke City have scored 15 goals and conceded only five.
Blackburn Rovers have won 18, drawn four, and lost 13 matches this season. They have been a low-scoring team and have netted only 39 goals. Rovers average 0.9 xG per match. Their defence has conceded 38 goals. Blackburn Rovers have scored nine goals in the last eight games and conceded only four.
We now look at some of the other stats that could predict the outcome of the match.
Season so far
Stoke City have performed decently this season. The above pizza chart shows the percentile rank of the team in comparison to other teams in the EFL Championship. Stoke City have a decent percentile rank in the attacking department. They have performed better than some of the teams ranked above them. However, their inconsistency is the reason why they are sitting in the bottom half of the table.
Blackburn Rovers despite sitting in the top four have struggled in most of the departments. They have kept the ball and are ranked decently for moving it. However, the team has the lowest percentile rank in the attacking department and this can cost them towards the end of the season.
Blackburn Rovers’ attacking struggles
Blackburn Rovers have struggled to score goals this season. The team only averages 1.11 goals per match this season. By looking at the xG benchmarking we can observe that Rovers have the lowest xG rate in the division. They create 23 positional attacks and 1.77 counterattacks per match. Rovers attempt just 8.46 shots and have a 36.2% accuracy rate. This shows that they have failed to take shots and that is one of the reasons behind this poor goal-scoring record. In the last eight matches, the team has attempted 66 shots and scored nine goals. They are unable to improve their average for the season.
Stoke City have a better record in the attack. The Potters create 31.37 positional attacks and 1.57 counterattacks per match. Overall, they have an average of 11.49 shots with a 36.8% accuracy rate. In the last eight matches, Stoke City have attempted 96 shots and averaged 12 shots per match. They are the in-form team in the match.
High recoveries
Another area where Blackburn Rovers have struggled is in recovering the ball high up on the field. Stoke City have one of the best records, while Blackburn Rovers have the worst record.
The two images above clearly show the difference in their stats. Stoke City have made 54 more dangerous recoveries than their opponents. They have also made more recoveries inside and on the edge of the 18-yard box. Stoke City will be on the attacking side in this match.
Key players
William Smallbone is a key figure in the midfield for Stoke City. The player has shown his creativity in the last match and provided three assists. He took some dangerous positions on the right side and was able to set up his teammates three-times.
Tyrese Campbell has also picked up some form lately. The striker has scored seven goals this season and two came in the last game against Sunderland. He features on the left flank and attempts most of the shots from that particular side. He will be a key in the attack in this match.
Team news
Matija Sarkic, Ben Wilmot, and Ben Pearson are doubtful for this match. Sarkic has been ruled out for the rest of the season.
Betting analysis
As per the 1×2 betting odds, Stoke City are the favourites to take three points from this game. Despite winning their last four games, Blackburn Rovers are the least favourites to win the match. They have betting odds of around 3.8. As for the over/under lines, the underlines are expected to thrive as this is expected to be a tight match.
Stoke City have better stats and are the favourites to end Blackburn Rovers’ unbeaten run.
Visuals via TFA data viz engine
