‘Exciting’ Sheffield Wednesday play-off chance available as key Danny Rohl reasons explained

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Sheffield Wednesday are six points off the play-off places with eight games to play, which could be a tall order for Danny Rohl’s side.

Rohl also linked with a move to Southampton amid talk of a successor in South Yorkshire this summer, but all those connected with Wednesday will be desperate for him to stay and build something at Hillsborough to continue his impressive work.

Danny Rohl is unlikely to make it into the top six at this stage, especially given the level of competition in the race for the play-offs currently. Although the fixtures look favourable to say the least and perhaps provides a glimmer of faint hope.

However, irrespective of what happens from here, there are positives that they can take from this season. That’s despite Wednesday failing to make a top flight return anytime soon to end a near 25-year wait.

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EFL expert makes bold Sheffield Wednesday play-off claim

Ali Maxwell and George Elek of the Not The Top 20 podcast have had their say on the run-in for each side, but they have particular excitement over the Owls heading into the weekend.

Maxwell said: “Yeah, the underlying numbers over the last eight games. It’s actually quite nuts, this. Four of the teams we are talking about are in the bottom six over an eight-game period for non-penalty xG.

“You’ve got West Brom and Coventry who are basically flat — like league average — broadly creating the same level of xG as they are conceding. Then, at the top of this group, you’ve got Norwich — which seems insane given that their form is poor in terms of results. But I think kind of sums them up.

“Sunderland are in there as well, Bristol City’s are the strongest of the group outside that, and Sheffield Wednesday’s are pretty good as well. I think the biggest player could be Sheffield Wednesday.

“That’s because, in their next five fixtures, they are Cardiff away, Hull at home, Blackburn away, Oxford United at home, and then Stoke City away. This is a team that we’ve talked quite a lot about recently.

The run-in sees Wednesday face teams they dominate largely, Maxwell added: “Basically [they] can’t beat anyone in the top ten. And if they made the play-offs, I certainly wouldn’t back them to win.

“They’ve lost five of their last eight games, but all of those are against teams in the top six. I would say in all of them, they went pretty much toe-to-toe.

“But they’ve got this group of five games where they’re against bottom ten teams, not including Blackburn — but they are playing basically like that, and they average 2PPG this season against bottom ten teams.

“There’s easily a world where they get ten points from their next five games, I reckon; if not more if Rohl can really get them ticking. Then they will be closer to the play-offs. Currently, it’s a six-point gap.

“I think there is a chance, in three weeks time on the Monday pod, that we might be looking at a two or three points gap with four games to play. And I think that would be quite exciting from a Sheffield Wednesday point of view. I maintain their performances have been good despite results.”

It’s favourable for certain, especially in the next five games. Oxford United will be sweating over the clash, given their situation, but so will so many other sides fighting for their lives and thus there for the taking.

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What the data says about Sheffield Wednesday’s play-off chances

It’s a remarkable job so far from Rohl, especially given the squad at his disposal. Not many of the current incumbent make Sheffield Wednesday’s best XI of the 21st century. As for Rohl, he will certainly be considered as one of the brighter parts of the club’s recent history.

He has among the highest win percentages of any Sheffield Wednesday manager, albeit how likely he is to stay without promotion remains unclear. His side are projected to end the season well, according to Opta’s estimates.

Position	Team	Played MP	Won W	Drawn D	Lost L	For GF	Against GA	Diff GD	Points Pts
8	MiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough	38	15	9	14	57	48	9	54
9	BlackburnBlackburn	38	15	7	16	42	40	2	52
10	WatfordWatford	38	15	7	16	47	51	-4	52
11	MillwallMillwall	38	13	12	13	37	39	-2	51
12	Sheffield WednesdaySheffield Wednesday	38	14	9	15	53	59	-6	51
13	NorwichNorwich	38	12	13	13	60	54	6	49
14	PrestonPreston	38	10	17	11	39	44	-5	47
15	QPRQPR	38	11	12	15	44	50	-6	45

They suggest a three-place rise in the table between now and May, with 63.18 expected points as their predicted average from eight fixtures. That also means a 4.30% chance of achieving a top six finish — a higher chance than Millwall, Blackburn, and Watford above them.

Opta are also suggesting Wednesday have the easiest fixture list alongside Leeds United. The average Opta Power Rating of their last eight opponents is 77.8.