Sunderland must defy supercomputer prediction in Championship play-off final, they’ve already proven it wrong once

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As Sunderland and Sheffield United prepare for the biggest game of their seasons in the Championship play-off final, the Black Cats know they go into this with all the odds against them.

Sheffield United were one of the top teams in the Championship this season, finishing in third place by quite some distance — 14 points clear of Sunderland in fourth place, actually.

Position	Team	Played MP	Won W	Drawn D	Lost L	For GF	Against GA	Diff GD	Points Pts
1	LeedsLeeds	46	29	13	4	95	30	65	100
2	BurnleyBurnley	46	28	16	2	69	16	53	100
3	Sheff UtdSheffield Utd	46	28	8	10	63	36	27	90
4	SunderlandSunderland	46	21	13	12	58	44	14	76
5	CoventryCoventry	46	20	9	17	64	58	6	69
6	Bristol CityBristol City	46	17	17	12	59	55	4	68

The two teams got through their respective Championship play-off semi-finals, with the Blades absolutely coasting past Bristol City and Sunderland leaving it late to defeat Coventry City.

There’s little to separate the two teams when you look at the Sunderland vs Sheffield United head-to-head record, but one team will have to win at Wembley on Saturday. And for Sunderland, it will be a chance to prove their doubters wrong.

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How Opta’s supercomputer envisioned the Championship play-offs would go

Looking at the Opta supercomputer predictions from just before the play-offs began earlier this month, it’s interesting to see that Sunderland were actually given the lowest percentage of the four teams when it comes to going all the way and winning promotion via this route.

The Black Cats were given a 19.3% chance of victory at Wembley, marginally behind Bristol City (19.6%), and way behind Coventry City (25.1%). Not surprisingly, Sheffield United were touted as the early favourites to win it all, with a 36% chance of success.

In line with this, the supercomputer seemed pretty sure we would see a Blades vs Sky Blues final, with United having a 61% chance of making it past Bristol City and getting to the final, while Coventry were pegged at 54.5% to defeat Sunderland.

However, Sunderland did have a better chance (45.5%) of making it to the final than Bristol City (39%), which suggests the supercomputer knew the clash between the Black Cats and Coventry would be a lot closer than the other tie between Chris Wilder’s men and Bristol City.

Regis Le Bris and his players have defied the odds already to get past Coventry, albeit thanks to a dramatic, last-gasp goal from the immense Dan Ballard. Now, they’ll have to upset the supercomputer once more at Wembley.

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Do Sunderland have what it takes to beat Sheffield United?

Everything seems to point to a Sheffield United win on Saturday, doesn’t it? For a start, Chris Wilder has never lost a play-off game in his career.

Then, of course, there’s the fact that historically, the team in third place in the Championship has the best success rate when it comes to earning promotion through the play-offs.

The problem is, Sheffield United’s own play-off record goes against all of that. The Blades have failed in all eight attempts in the play-offs, and Sunderland certainly possess the abilities to condemn them to a ninth.

With the likes of Eliezer Mayenda, Wilson Isidor, Chris Rigg, Jobe Bellingham, and Enzo Le Fee, the Black Cats are brimming with talented players who can make things happen in the final third. They’ll know that all they need is one chance, one counter-attack, and it could be game over for Sheffield United.

Funnily enough, when we asked Championship fans to predict the play-offs, they backed Sunderland. Our team, on the other hand, leaned towards the Blades with our own Championship play-off predictions. Someone will be right on Saturday, and it’s going to be thrilling seeing the two teams fight it out.