West Brom and Bristol City earn places but Coventry City miss out as EFL experts make Championship play-off prediction

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There is plenty to be decided in the race for the play-offs, with the likes of West Brom, Middlesbrough, Coventry City, and Bristol City vying for two places in the top six.

You could argue that teams as far down as Norwich City remain in the play-off picture and the final eight game run-in will decide plenty, particularly in games where teams face each other in six-pointer clashes.

Position	Team	Played MP	Won W	Drawn D	Lost L	For GF	Against GA	Diff GD	Points Pts
5	CoventryCoventry	38	17	8	13	55	48	7	59
6	West BromWest Brom	38	13	18	7	48	34	14	57
7	Bristol CityBristol City	38	14	15	9	49	41	8	57
8	MiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough	38	15	9	14	57	48	9	54
9	BlackburnBlackburn	38	15	7	16	42	40	2	52
10	WatfordWatford	38	15	7	16	47	51	-4	52
11	MillwallMillwall	38	13	12	13	37	39	-2	51
12	Sheffield WednesdaySheffield Wednesday	38	14	9	15	53	59	-6	51
13	NorwichNorwich	38	12	13	13	60	54	6	49

Things can change quickly in football, but the current form and quality of each side makes it difficult to look beyond Coventry City in the eyes of many, while Bristol City and West Brom have arguably had more consistency than Middlesbrough in recent months.

However, the landscape will become clearer in the next few games in the Championship after the international break and don’t rule Sheffield Wednesday out based on their favourable remaining fixtures and with the impressive and Southampton linked Danny Rohl at the helm.

• READ MORE: Tony Mowbray must do what no other West Brom manager has done to earn Premier League return

Championship pundits predict Bristol City and West Brom play-off charge

Ali Maxwell and George Elek of the Not The Top 20 podcast have had their say on the run-in. Elek said “You’ve got West Brom, where Tony Mowbray is doing a pretty good job. But there is still the kind of feeling at the club that they aren’t great and not particularly solid.

“Bristol City in seventh are a team battling to get into the play-offs, having not done so since 2007? The Hull City final. They’re knocking on the door but every time they lose it’s ’Manning is so negative’ and all the rest of it.

“It feels like a group of teams who are quite close to achieving their pre-season goal. Yet, throughout the season, or at times this season, there has been serious concern over the performance level.

“I don’t know what that says about the league in general. I think Baggies will be the most likely. Baggies and Bristol City are the two most solid right now.”

Maxwell added his agreement with the same two sides. He said: “West Brom, I would say are the main character here.

“They’re the ones to be shot at in sixth spot. They’re the ones being hunted down. They’re the ones under Mowbray who have been mixed — some decent performances and results. Not a huge amount of wins but very few defeats.

“It’s difficult to know exactly what to expect from them over the next period of games. Which is just as well for the neutral because they have a huge test in the next few weeks.

“Overall, I’m thinking it’s West Brom or Bristol City, who I am also impressed by. They might just under-the-radar themselves all the way to the top six. I think the fans are starting to believe — I hope they are and I think they should be.”

• READ MORE: Bristol City become dark horses for promotion this season as they look to end decades-long exile from top flight

What the data says about each team’s play-off chances

Even teams as low down the table as QPR have been handed a 0.02% chance of securing a place in the top six, according to Opta. But the numbers only start to become significant with ninth-placed Blackburn Rovers (2.52%).

Watford have a 2.74% per their model, while Wednesday have been given a 4.82% chance of what would be a famous run to gatecrash the play-offs. Middlesbrough are projected to finish eighth but have a 16.58% chance, while Bristol City are at 37.74%.

According to the model, it is the current fifth and sixth-placed teams who are the likeliest to secure their place in the semi-finals, with West Brom handed a 63.98% chance and Coventry a 69.02%.

Of course, it’s unclear how much recent form is taken into account, but that could explain Coventry’s position. Meanwhile, Maxwell and Elek are less certain, perhaps due to Coventry’s next two fixtures against second and third in the division.