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EFL expert’s grim prediction for Burnley if they get promoted to the Premier League this season

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Burnley take on Norwich City tonight after drawing to Derby County in midweek 0-0, with the Clarets needing a response to remain in the top two this weekend.

They are embroiled in a three-horse race for automatic promotion with Leeds United and Sheffield United. Scott Parker’s side relinquished top spot in the Championship table, but they can take it back for at least a portion of the weekend before either of the others play.

Position Team Played MP Won W Drawn D Lost L For GF Against GA Diff GD Points Pts
1 LeedsLeeds41 24 13 4 80 28 52 85
2 BurnleyBurnley41 23 16 2 55 12 43 85
3 Sheff UtdSheffield Utd41 26 7 8 56 31 25 83
4 SunderlandSunderland41 21 13 7 57 37 20 76
5 Bristol CityBristol City41 16 15 10 53 44 9 63
6 CoventryCoventry41 18 8 15 58 53 5 62
7 MiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough41 17 9 15 61 50 11 60
8 West BromWest Brom41 13 18 10 49 38 11 57

For many, Burnley’s run-in appears to be the most difficult of the three sides and big wins against middling sides are needed to ‘get over the line’. As are qualities that are intangible, such as the mentality of the team and the willingness to win at the crunch point of the campaign.

There’s plenty of work still to do and Parker needs to squeeze out every last drop he can from his squad over the next four weeks to ensure they are above that dotted line and above one of their automatic chasing competitors.

Preston North End FC v Burnley FC - Sky Bet Championship
Photo by Alex Dodd – CameraSport via Getty Images

Championship expert Ryan Dilks shoots down Burnley’s Premier League chances under Scott Parker

Experts Justin Peach and Ryan Dilks have been discussing the Clarets ahead of tonight’s game and following the 0-0 with Derby. The latter doesn’t think Burnley are playing particularly well in an attacking sense and is worried about what is to come in the Premier League if they get there.

Dilks said: “I got a lot of stick over the weekend from Burnley fans for saying that they’ve not been astounding this season, which they haven’t.

“They weren’t here. They were second best to Derby side fighting to stay up. It was classic Burnley, really; not having a clue what to do when they’re coming up against a side who are well organised.

“I’ve been critical of them all season. I think they’ve been fortunate on many occasions. I think they’ve been boring on many occasions.

“Burnley fans will criticise me for saying that because they are at the top end of the table. But what I’ll say to them is this, ‘guys, we’ve been here before with Scott Parker sides’.”

He added: “Fulham and Bournemouth fans, I criticised them under Parker, got a lot of flack for it, and then, as soon as he left, they were essentially saying exactly the same as what I’ve been saying all season.

“Look, I’ll give Burnley full credit, because defensively, the numbers are astonishing. You can’t take anything away from them there. But in possession, they are so unimpressive.

“Look, they may very well go up this season, but for me if they do, they will be — without a doubt — one of the poorest sides to get promoted in a long time.

“I’m almost certain they’ll come straight back down next season because Scott Parker has got a very talented team here, but under his coaching, they are such a tough watch at times.”

Burnley FC v Bristol City FC - Sky Bet Championship
Photo by Alex Livesey/Getty Images

Marcus Edwards is the difference for Burnley — here’s why

Plenty of experts believe Burnley have been playing their best football of the season of late, with Derby only their second draw in the last eight league outings — including six wins in the other fixtures.

Marcus Edwards’ impact since January cannot be overstated. Even if he is not picking up the goals and assists himself, he is turning 0-0 games or 1-1 games into narrow wins. Low-margin football requires game-changers who are big differentials at either end of the pitch and he is that.

His sheer presence alone commands attention from the opposition, which opens up spaces for his teammates. Since January, Burnley have largely been a much more free-flowing outfit and they have a cutting edge in both an attacking and defensive sense.

His eight starts for Burnley have seen them score 16 goals and average 1.63xG per game in that time. Their season average is 1.19 per game. Edwards has had a tangible impact and Burnley are a more well-rounded team because of him.

Whether that will translate to the Premier League remains to be seen, but it’s difficult to find reason to knock Burnley’s current performance levels.