John Eustace vs Paul Warne – evaluating a tale of two Derby County starts beyond the four wins

Add as preferred source on Google

Both John Eustace and Paul Warne began their journeys at Derby County with four wins each.

Yet beneath the surface lies a profound difference in points, pressure, and the future of the club.

Paul Warne was dismissed by the Rams on the 7th of February, unable to secure a victory since Boxing Day against West Brom, and managing a mere two points from nine games.

During his 869 days at Pride Park, he steered the team through 132 matches, celebrating 60 wins, drawing 27, and suffering 45 losses, averaging 1.57 points per game.

So how does current Derby County manager Eustace compare to his predecessor, Warne?

Paul Warne’s time in charge of Derby County

Warne’s inaugural match in charge of Derby took place on the 10th of January 2022 against Cambridge.

At that time, Derby were navigating League One, filled with hope and determination to reclaim their place in the Championship.

The Rams clinched a 2-0 victory, a promising beginning for Warne.

Following a remarkable January, where Derby achieved a flawless record, they came close to the automatic promotion spots, earning Warne the League One Manager of the Month award for the third time, his first accolade with Derby County.

However, the tide turned sharply after this bright beginning, as Warne could only oversee six wins in the final 18 matches, culminating in a disappointing 7th place finish—the joint lowest in the club’s storied history—missing out on a playoff spot by the narrowest of margins, both in position and points.

The early phase of Warne’s tenure saw a mixture of results unfold:

Warne won four of his first ten league games, drawing four and losing two, amassing 16 points at an average of 1.6 points per game.

He also faced two challenging losses in the EFL Trophy against Man City U21s and Mansfield Town during this time.

In his inaugural season, Warne passionately guided the Rams to a 7th-place finish, just narrowly missing out on the playoffs by a heartbreaking single point.

The subsequent 2023-24 season proved to be a triumphant journey, with Warne leading Derby to automatic promotion to the Championship as League One runners-up, achieving the club’s highest points tally in the third tier.

This milestone marked his fourth promotion from League One as a manager, a true testament.

However, Derby’s transition to the Championship in the 2024-25 season did not go as hoped. Despite a promising start, a disheartening run of poor form saw them slip into the relegation zone.

Warne was ultimately relieved of his duties in February 2025 after a tough stretch of seven consecutive defeats.

Reflecting on Warne’s managerial journey, it is clear that his primary experience lies in League One, which was the landscape Derby found itself in upon his arrival. This may shed some light on the struggles he and the team faced in adapting to the rigours of the Championship.

They attempted to play League One football against formidable opponents like Sheffield United, Leeds, and Burnley—teams that were vying for Premier League promotion—and sadly, it just didn’t yield the crucial points Derby desperately needed.

Though his time ended prematurely, Warne’s contribution to helping the Rams secure their return to the Championship cannot be overlooked.

John Eustace’s time in charge of Derby County

John Eustace took the reins shortly after Warne’s departure, and to say he has had an immediate impact feels like an understatement.

He was appointed as head coach of Derby’s fellow Championship club Blackburn Rovers in February last year, signing a two-and-a-half-year deal filled with promise.

Under his guidance, the club battled valiantly and managed to avoid relegation in the 2023-24 season. Eustace left Blackburn in February 2025, with the team soaring in the play-off places after two-thirds of the 2024-25 season—a testament to his impactful leadership.

On the 13th of February, Derby announced Eustace as their new head coach, entrusting him with a deal that extends until the summer of 2028, a commitment to the future.

When Eustace took the reins, Derby was precariously perched just above the relegation zone in the Championship, surviving only on goal difference.

In his press conference, he candidly acknowledged the gamble he was taking—exiting a push for the play-offs at Blackburn to dive into a battle against relegation at Derby. Yet, he felt deep down that the opportunity at Derby presented a brighter, long-term prospect.

Eustace’s first ten league games played out a mixture of results:

Eustace also won four of his first ten league games but faced six tough losses, ending up with 11 points at an average of 1.1 points per game.

Despite Eustace’s first match against QPR on the 14th of February feeling all too familiar for the Derby faithful, reminiscent of the struggles under Warne, he was passionately scribbling notes throughout the game, clearly identifying what wasn’t working. 

The 4-0 defeat plunged Derby into the relegation zone on goal difference.

After three disheartening defeats in his first three matches as head coach, Eustace finally celebrated victory against Blackburn, his former club, at home. 

This triumphant win was followed by a string of victories against Coventry City, Plymouth Argyle, and Preston, creating an exhilarating upward movement that the fans could feel in their bones. 

Though Eustace has only led Derby for 63 days and 10 games, his average of 1.1 points per game lags behind Warne’s 1.6 during their opening ten matches.

He averages 1.20 goals per game. While both managers managed to secure four wins in their opening ten league games, the points tally tells a different story, with Warne amassing 16 points compared to Eustace’s 11.

While their stats may suggest a similar number of wins, Warne’s early performance brought in more points, thanks to fewer losses.

Yet, if you delve into Warne’s last ten league matches before he was let go from the helm at Pride Park, there is a noticeable decline that the Rams desperately needed to address if they harboured hopes of Championship football for the next season.

Position	Team	Played MP	Won W	Drawn D	Lost L	For GF	Against GA	Diff GD	Points Pts
19	PortsmouthPortsmouth	42	12	10	20	50	66	-16	46
20	Hull CityHull City	42	11	12	19	41	50	-9	45
21	DerbyDerby	42	11	10	21	44	54	-10	43
22	CardiffCardiff	42	9	15	18	45	66	-21	42
23	LutonLuton	42	10	10	22	37	63	-26	40

Warne managed to win just two of his last ten league games at Pride Park, including a disappointing 4-2 defeat at Sheffield Wednesday and a 2-1 loss to Luton, the very team Derby will face on the 18th of April. 

Currently, the Rams find themselves only one point clear of the relegation zone, while the Hatters sit in 23rd place with 40 points.

That means Friday’s clash between Derby and Luton is a huge, must-win game for Eustace’s team, with victory potentially seeing them leapfrog two places, providing much-needed momentum. 

Eustace’s impact has undeniably infused a sense of renewed hope into a club like Derby, which desperately required a change after Warne’s magic had seemingly run its course.

With just four games remaining in the season, the coming weeks will be charged with tension as we wait to see if Eustace can replicate the spark he ignited at Blackburn and guide another club away from the looming threat of relegation.