Sky Sports pundit shares Derby County vs Luton Town score prediction amid ‘catalyst’ claim

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Luton Town travel to Derby County knowing the damage of anything less than three points at Pride Park against a resurgent John Eustace side.

We recently had a stab at predicting the points total required for survival in the Championship, which the Rams are not far off after John Eustace’s arrival from Blackburn Rovers sparked a revival.

Position	Team	Played MP	Won W	Drawn D	Lost L	For GF	Against GA	Diff GD	Points Pts
17	Oxford UnitedOxford United	42	12	12	18	43	60	-17	48
18	Stoke CityStoke City	42	11	14	17	43	54	-11	47
19	PortsmouthPortsmouth	42	12	10	20	50	66	-16	46
20	Hull CityHull City	42	11	12	19	41	50	-9	45
21	DerbyDerby	42	11	10	21	44	54	-10	43
22	CardiffCardiff	42	9	15	18	45	66	-21	42
23	LutonLuton	42	10	10	22	37	63	-26	40
24	PlymouthPlymouth	42	9	13	20	44	82	-38	40

Opta are predicting Derby will survive ahead of Luton who will be relegated, but this game could be so decisive for both clubs, and it is absolutely essential that both teams pick up at least something from it.

The swing in terms of points could be massive, but especially for Derby’s survival hopes given how close their points total looks to being enough. Defeat is also not an option for the Rams, given the likely consequences of a loss at Pride Park.

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Sam Parkin reveals prediction for Luton away to Derby County

Eustace has already made plenty of changes to boost their survival hopes, with Derby hovering just outside of relegation places ahead of the final four-game run-in.

Some have even described the Rams’ turnaround as a ‘miracle’, although Eustace has been quick to shut down the noise, with numerous vital games still left to play. 

The stats suggest a huge improvement of late, which has been well-timed to say the least. Not long ago, Derby were joined by Luton in the bottom three. Since then, they have somewhat left Luton behind.

Luton’s defeat to Blackburn Rovers was ‘hugely damaging’ and they cannot afford to lose two six-pointers in a row now and must reel Derby back in. However, they have a difficult game ahead considering Derby’s record at home and their own away.

Others have had their say on the outcome, with EFL pundit for the BBC and talkSPORT, as well as being a co-commentator for Sky Sports, Sam Parkin speaking to Benjamin Bloom to provide his verdict.

Bloom said: “What a start [to the Friday fixtures], Sam. Derby vs Luton; that needs no introduction.”

Parkin responded: “It almost feels like one of Luton’s last victories was that last ditch win over Derby.

“Completely unwarranted at Kenilworth and I thought it could have been the catalyst and clearly hasn’t been.

“Tight game, Luton still can’t score, Derby are pretty clinical with the few chances they get. I’m going to go 1-0 the home side.”

Bloom added: “I had Derby winning this one 1-0, which would be so decisive, wouldn’t it? Shall I take the unhelpful draw?

“No, I do think Derby are going to win. I’ll shuffle it up to a 2-1 to Derby.

“That is just hugely, hugely problematic; not completely decisive, but that would be a near-fatal blow to Luton.”

• READ MORE: Former Derby County boss Paul Warne rejects controversial League Two manager job

Derby’s home record ranked against Luton Town’s away record

They have hit strong form at the right time, and will fancy their chances back at Pride Park on Good Friday before an Easter Monday trip across the Midlands to West Brom — which could be their most difficult remaining game.

The Rams have four wins and two draws in their last seven league outings home or away and have escaped the relegation zone for now amid ‘insane statistics’ being set under Eustace’s tutelage.

They should be strong favourites here, but anything can happen at the business end of the season. Holding your nerve is vital, but which team can do it in front of the Sky cameras during the lunchtime kick-off?