How many points are required for Championship survival? What PPG and historic totals tell us about the relegation battle

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Derby County’s recent resurgence of four wins on the spin has broken the Championship relegation battle wide open this season, leaving numerous sides looking worriedly over their shoulder.

Luton Town have also accrued 10 points in five games to make things more interesting at the bottom. Prior to that, it had looked like the pair would be relegated alongside Plymouth Argyle after the three sides were somewhat cut adrift.

Position	Team	Played MP	Won W	Drawn D	Lost L	For GF	Against GA	Diff GD	Points Pts
14	PrestonPreston	39	10	17	12	39	46	-7	47
15	QPRQPR	39	11	12	16	45	53	-8	45
16	SwanseaSwansea	39	12	9	18	40	51	-11	45
17	PortsmouthPortsmouth	39	12	9	18	47	61	-14	45
18	Stoke CityStoke City	39	10	12	17	40	52	-12	42
19	Oxford UnitedOxford United	39	10	12	17	40	57	-17	42
20	DerbyDerby	39	11	8	20	42	51	-9	41
21	Hull CityHull City	39	10	11	18	39	48	-9	41
22	CardiffCardiff	39	9	13	17	43	63	-20	40
23	LutonLuton	39	10	8	21	35	60	-25	38
24	PlymouthPlymouth	39	7	13	19	40	77	-37	34

We’ve seen a number of teams get sucked into the fight for survival this season, and it’s shaping up to be one of the most tense finishes to a campaign in years in the Championship, especially given the volume of teams who are still not safe.

Preston North End are only seven points above the drop zone with seven games left to play during the Championship relegation run-in. It means as many as 11 teams could still be in the mix in 2024/25, even if Plymouth look doomed without a win against Norwich City this weekend.

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How many points needed for Championship survival in 2024/25 and the teams involved

John Mousinho has outlined Portsmouth aren’t safe yet this week, and it got us wondering who is likely to stay up and who is likely to fail to survive? How many points will be required? What does history tell us is the magic number? We take a look at all of that, here.

Millwall are currently sat on 51 points in 13th ahead of matchday 40 and Opta believe they have a 0.00% chance of relegation from this point. That isn’t to say 50 points is the cut-off this season, even if Birmingham City were relegated with that points total last term.

Plymouth fans are resigned to relegation already, and they think the decision to appoint Wayne Rooney at the start of the campaign is to blame for their plight. However, everyone in between 23rd and 14th will still feel as though they have work to do and it is all to play for.

In terms of points per game (PPG), we can see that 22nd-placed Cardiff City are heading for 47 currently, which is likely to be a decent indicator of what is required. We can fairly safely assume that it will be around the 47 or 48 marker due to that, even if Cardiff surpass it and someone else takes their place with a lower average in the next seven fixtures.

Portsmouth, who are strong at home, are therefore in a clutch of four teams along with Preston, QPR, and Swansea City who are very likely to survive from this stage. All of them need just a matter of a few points to hit that total, even if some — such as QPR — are in, frankly, terrible form at the moment.

Opta suggest they each have between a 0.14% and 2.22% chance of going down to League One. That is significantly lower than each of the teams between 18th and 23rd, while Plymouth’s chances of survival are just 1.72% currently.

Mark Robins has seen his side make some progress but they are still ranked below Hull City, with goal difference and fixture schedule perhaps the key reasons for that. Getting to 48 points with a far better goal difference will almost certainly be enough, which Hull know is in sight despite a disappointing home defeat to Luton recently.

The games against one another are perhaps the most crucial to the final shape of the Championship table come May. Derby have plenty of those left to come and the best form, while they have also dragged sides thinking they were definitely safe and secure into a more perilous position after beating Preston in midweek, too.

Historically, it only takes 44 points to survive on average. Since the Championship’s inception in 2004/05, though, there have been numerous occasions where far more is required. That looks like being the case again this year, much like last season.

Plymouth stayed up by the skin of their teeth on 51 ahead of Birmingham. In the 2012/13 season, both Peterborough United (54) and Wolverhampton Wanderers (51) were relegated to the third tier, leaving Barnsley to just survive on 55.

In recent seasons of finishing 22nd: Reading were relegated with 44 in 2022/23, Peterborough United with 37 in 2021/22, Wycombe Wanderers with 43 in 2020/21, and Charlton Athletic with 48 in 2019/20. It’s fair to say that this season will be at the top end of recent tallies.

This time around, we think 48 will be enough to stave off the drop and survive being relegated to League One.

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Who we believe will be relegated from the Championship

Plymouth’s position looks beyond repair but picking the current bottom three is far too simplistic as well. We know there will be more twists and turns to come in this battle. Luton face a wobbling Leeds side this weekend, but a defeat there could be really damaging given their points total.

Cardiff are in danger but there are definitely weaker sides in the mix. John Eustace appears to have worked his magic again, much like last season, even if the Derby boss is playing down their achievements. It therefore makes it difficult to look beyond one of Stoke City or Oxford United for the final place.

The former have some of the hardest games remaining of any side in the mix, while the same is also true of the latter. Oxford are always in tight games under Gary Rowett but usually on the losing side. They are our third pick but, suffice to say, it is a fool’s errand to try and predict the unpredictable nature of the second tier.

Preston have been kept honest by the chasing pack, but losing all of the last seven games would likely see them relegated. Stranger things have happened in football, so predicting the bottom three is still nearly impossible even when being at this late stage of matchday 40.