‘Absolutely bonkers’ – The misleading statistic that Leeds United need to prove wrong to gain automatic promotion

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Leeds United’s 17-game unbeaten run ended with defeat at Portsmouth, with Daniel Farke’s side now looking to make amends against Millwall this evening.

That saw them fall to their first league defeat since November with a 1-0 loss on Sunday afternoon in the early kick-off at Fratton Park, with Leeds succumbing to an in-form Portsmouth side.

Position	Team	Played MP	Won W	Drawn D	Lost L	For GF	Against GA	Diff GD	Points Pts
1	Sheff UtdSheffield Utd	37	24	7	6	52	28	24	77
2	LeedsLeeds	36	22	10	4	72	23	49	76
3	BurnleyBurnley	37	20	15	2	50	11	39	75
4	SunderlandSunderland	37	19	12	6	55	34	21	69
5	West BromWest Brom	37	13	17	7	47	33	14	56
6	CoventryCoventry	37	16	8	13	52	48	4	56

It means their lead over the sides behind them in the Championship has vanished after drawing to West Brom and losing to Pompey.

That said, Sheffield United and Burnley draws on Tuesday night have reopened the door to the top spot and a points cushion again, with the Whites taking on Millwall tonight.

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Leeds United’s early kick-off woes need to be addressed by Daniel Farke

Colby Bishop’s dinked finish over Illan Meslier just after the hour-mark was enough to settle the game at the weekend, although Leeds missed some big chances of their own.

Experts even predicted a potential ‘slip up’ for Leeds prior to the game, and they were proven right in a difficult weekend for Leeds in the Championship.

More frustratingly will be the reveal regarding their form in the early kick-offs this season, which was also a problem for Daniel Farke and co. last season as well.

In the wake of that defeat to Portsmouth, Leeds have now won just two of their last 13 Championship matches that kicked off at 1:30pm GMT or earlier.

It’s absolutely bonkers but not altogether surprising, considering Sky choose games where Leeds are generally playing ‘bigger’ teams that draw the viewing numbers they are looking for.

Naturally, most of those are tougher games as well. The good news for Leeds is there are fewer of that type of fixture to come, but Leeds will be hoping to right things against QPR in a few weeks’ time, as well as Luton Town just after the international break.

Both are long trips in lunchtime matches, but surely the Whites can’t continue their current form in those fixtures? Something has to change and fast, even if the statistic may be misleading somewhat due to the nature of the better opponents often being selected by Sky.

That said, Leeds will be hoping the Oxford United fixture on April 18th remains a 3pm start time, or begins later in the day — where the Whites seemingly flick a switch and win consistently well, as seen below.

Leeds have the easiest run-in of any Championship side when looking at the average position of teams left to play, which will bring a degree of comfort to their fans. Portsmouth and Millwall are the only teams in the bottom half to beat them so far this season.

QPR, Middlesbrough, and Stoke City may all be relatively big names for the division, but Leeds can be confident and hopeful of rectifying a poor early kick-off record sooner rather than later ahead of those games.

• READ MORE: How much Championship title is worth as Leeds United and Sheffield United chase Premier League prize fund

Leeds’ statistical chances of promotion from their final fixtures

Leeds know promotion remains in their hands, but Farke will want an improvement in some aspects before the end of the campaign, especially after the scars of last season remain concerningly open and fresh.

Pascal Struijk has called for more Leeds control in the final 10 games of the campaign, but that is particularly key for Leeds in the aforementioned early games.

Leeds cans settle the nerves by taking the sting out of the game and enacting some game management when others start so aggressively and front-footed against them. They still have promotion in their own hands, but that aspect needs to be more consistent.

According to Opta, they still have an 92.54% chance of a top two finish, including a 70.10% chance of the title. Now, they need to make good on that advantage and get over the line in this promotion race to put the disappointment of last season behind them.