EFL expert shares Leeds United vs Stoke score prediction with promotion in ‘touching distance’

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Leeds United could wrap up promotion tomorrow if they beat Stoke City and the Sheffield United trip to Burnley goes their way.

Leeds have won the last three at the optimum time as they head into the first of two home games in search of promotion and answered plenty of questions put their way in the process. Stoke have all but sealed safety after their win against Sheffield Wednesday.

Position	Team	Played MP	Won W	Drawn D	Lost L	For GF	Against GA	Diff GD	Points Pts
1	LeedsLeeds	43	26	13	4	83	29	54	91
2	BurnleyBurnley	43	25	16	2	59	14	45	91
3	Sheff UtdSheffield Utd	43	27	7	9	59	33	26	86
4	SunderlandSunderland	43	21	13	9	58	40	18	76
5	Bristol CityBristol City	43	17	16	10	56	46	10	67
6	CoventryCoventry	43	19	9	15	61	54	7	66

That said, Stoke arrive at Elland Road unbeaten in five with virtually guaranteed safety after propelling themselves to the important 50-point mark. The Whites extended their own excellent winning streak to seven second-tier matches on Good Friday at the Kassam Stadium against Oxford United.

Given the quick Easter weekend turnaround, there could be a number of changes made by both teams. However, there is much more at stake for Leeds than a Stoke side who aren’t far off being on the beach ahead of the 2025/26 Championship season.

• READ MORE: Pundit shares why he was ‘delighted’ by Sheffield United amid ‘pressure’ demand ahead of Burnley clash

Sam Parkin’s verdict on Leeds United against Stoke City

Leeds are potentially one win away from promotion and definitely four off securing their place in next season’s Premier League after the heartbreak of losing the Championship play-off final to Southampton last May at Wembley Stadium.

Many will expect Leeds to get over the line sooner rather than later, including experts. Sam Parkin is an EFL pundit for the BBC and talkSPORT, as well as being a co-commentator for Sky Sports, and he spoke to Benjamin Bloom to provide his verdict on the clash.

Bloom asked: “Leeds could actually be promoted in this game. Leeds will be in millimeters of touching distance. Do they get the win against Stoke, Sam?”

Parkin said: “Yeah, I think so. We both predicted for Stoke to win their previous game, which is enough to go into this with a bit more freedom.

“I think Leeds will win this again comfortably by a couple of goals. I’ll go for a 2-0 home win.”

Bloom added: “I toyed with the idea of Leeds cruising through and having a lovely old day. What about narrative, Sam? Where they get two up in the first half and score the third in the second.

“I will go 3-0 Leeds. We’ve both got them on for the 100 points as well. That will take them to 94.”

Leeds have won 12 home games to nil so far this season, which has come from 21 fixtures at Elland Road in the Championship. Unsurprisingly, that is why Bloom and Parkin are backing them to do so again.

Recent home fixtures against Stoke have proven to be fruitful, particularly during the days of Marcelo Bielsa in West Yorkshire. His side won 5-0 in one of his last Championship games and 3-1 in his first ever, although things may be different against Mark Robins given Daniel Farke’s previous comments.

They can soon start to think of promotion and planning for the Premier League, especially if Bloom and Parkin have called this one correctly. They will have to ignore the noise from pundits regarding the difficulty of the step up and enjoy the glory and financial reward of promotion.

• READ MORE: How Leeds United compare to this time last season as Daniel Farke closes in on Premier League return

Leeds’ incredible home record in 2024/25

With the chance to clinch a return to the promised land on Easter Monday, the Whites will be desperate to extend their league unbeaten home run to an incredibly impressive 19 matches.

Leeds’ home record is staggering. Daniel Farke and co. could lose both of their final home games and would still have the best record in the league this season, having lost just once.

Burnley may have an unbeaten record, but Leeds’ ability to find a way at home has been crucial to their success this term. When away form has suffered, the home games have kept them motoring.

It highlights the size of the task for Mark Robins’ side with just four wins on their travels all season and against a Leeds side with a heck of a lot to play for in terms of motivation.

Both Burnley and Leeds could set records over the last few games of the run-in by becoming teams to hit the highest points totals in Championship history, which is added motivation.