League Two play-offs statistic should give Walsall huge promotion boost, but Notts County will be worried

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While most football fans are glued to the Championship play-offs, we couldn’t neglect the action in League Two, and we stumbled across a fascinating statistic.

Throughout the EFL there have been some incredible stories this season; from the chaotic relegation battle in the Championship, to Wrexham’s historic promotion from League One, but League Two has been packed with twists and turns all year.

Doncaster Rovers were ultimately crowned champions in the fourth tier, with Port Vale and Bradford City promoted with them.

Now, it’s down to Walsall, AFC Wimbledon, Notts County, and Chesterfield to battle it out in the play-offs for a place in League One.

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What history tells us about the League Two play-offs

Obviously, some teams from that quartet may feel better prepared and well-placed to go all the way to Wembley and secure promotion, while others will be wary of falling short.

Ahead of the upcoming games, we did a little digging into the statistical chances for each team of succeeding in the play-offs. Based on the teams that have won in the past and what their corresponding league position was at the end of the season, we found some intriguing results.

Turns out, the team ending the season in fourth place has the best chance of success in the play-offs, with 14 instances of that side being promoted over the years (a 38.9% success rate).

That bodes well for Walsall, who will be desperate to put the disappointment of missing out on automatic promotion behind them over the next few weeks.

Meanwhile, the next-best finish according to these statistics is the team that comes in seventh, with nine instances of success there (a 25% success rate).

That will give Chesterfield hope going into the play-offs, despite them sneaking into the top seven after a strong run of form at the end of the season.

For Notts County and AFC Wimbledon, history does not paint a pretty picture, with teams finishing in fifth and sixth managing to go all the way in the play-offs just five times apiece (a 16.7% success rate).

Interestingly, in the early days of the play-off format, teams in third place in League Two would enter the play-offs. We only saw one team manage to go up after a third-placed finish, though, before the league expanded to three automatic promotion spots.

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Walsall’s fall from the title race was a stunning failure

Walsall fans must be wondering how they are even in the League Two play-offs at all. In the first half of the season, the Saddlers looked nailed on to run away with the title, never mind automatic promotion.

However, their season absolutely collapsed from the end of January onwards, with defeat to Bradford City at the turn of the year setting Mat Sadler’s side on a slippery slope.

From April, Walsall lost to Port Vale, Barrow, and one of the founding clubs of the EFL, Accrington Stanley, to really compound their misery and drop out of the automatic promotion places.

Victory over Crewe Alexandra on the final day of the season was still not enough to salvage anything more than a fourth-placed finish, but Sadler will now be hoping his men can put that behind them and add their name to the list of teams that have succeeded in the play-offs of the past from the same league position.