Four clear signs that Leeds United are in fact ‘falling apart again’ this season

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Following a 0-0 draw with Burnley in January, Leeds United then won six Championship matches in a row through February, but March has since hit and brought them just one win in five outings.

The latest came against Swansea City during a 2-2 draw at Elland Road on Saturday, leaving them inside the top two by the skin of their teeth and having relinquished their grip on top spot in the Championship.

Position	Team	Played MP	Won W	Drawn D	Lost L	For GF	Against GA	Diff GD	Points Pts
1	Sheff UtdSheffield Utd	39	26	7	6	56	29	27	83
2	LeedsLeeds	39	23	12	4	78	27	51	81
3	BurnleyBurnley	39	22	15	2	53	11	42	81
4	SunderlandSunderland	39	20	12	7	56	37	19	72
5	CoventryCoventry	39	17	8	14	56	51	5	59
6	West BromWest Brom	39	13	18	8	48	35	13	57
7	MiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough	39	16	9	14	59	49	10	57

Leeds have seven games left to spare their blushes, having been top of the division for 16 matchdays in a row up until this weekend. Sheffield United have stolen a march in March to leave Leeds potentially marching on together towards the play-offs again.

They have a terrible play-off record at Wembley, which is why they will be desperate to arrest their slide as quickly as possible to fend off Burnley in the fight for the top two, where Scott Parker’s side have a less than favourable run-in for automatic promotion.

• READ MORE: Leeds United stat presents worrying picture for Daniel Farke’s promotion hopes

The reasons why Leeds might bottle automatic promotion again

Farke hasn’t helped himself for stating Leeds will be promoted to the Premier League. Here, we have taken a look at four reasons why Leeds could well fall apart again and miss out narrowly on an automatic promotion place for the second season in a row.

A wobble at the wrong time

Just when you think Leeds have hit their stride and found their momentum, they go and drop points during an easier portion of their run-in post-Sheffield United away. One win in five at such a critical juncture is why so many fans and neutrals believe they are falling apart again — as the famous song goes. 

That is and was likely to have a domino effect on the games to come. Dropped points to Portsmouth, QPR, and Swansea at this stage of the season aren’t guaranteed to be chronic, but a snowball impact has since followed. They have let so many winnable games pass them by lately and are showing vulnerability at the worst stage to do so in the season. 

They still have some ‘easier’ games left against sides at the wrong end of the table, but it doesn’t account for much when looking at the league position of the teams they have recently dropped points against. With their rivals getting close to maximum points in the same time frame, it could not have been timed worse.

The Illan Meslier issue

There was Sunderland away, Hull City away, and now Swansea at home. There have been other catastrophic moments outside of those, but the main point here is that the glaringly obvious issue for Leeds is primarily in goal. Especially when compared to their automatic promotion peers, with James Trafford and Michael Cooper shining. 

Numerous times, Farke has had the opportunity to drop Meslier for Karl Darlow and chosen not to despite fan calls to do so. Should he continue to persist with the Frenchman, Leeds’ promotion hopes may suffer. They have been the best team in the division, but Meslier hasn’t just threatened to undermine that — he has already done so. 

There’s still time for Farke to make a change. With the confidence visibly sapped from Meslier and the defensive unit in front of him, it may have to happen against Luton Town this weekend. The likes of Joe Rodon appear to have lost faith and thus their own performances are suffering, too. 

Daniel Farke’s poor squad utilisation and lack of rotation

Speaking of changing Meslier, Farke has been extremely risk-averse and pragmatic all season. It is not just in goal where there are some obvious issues that have arisen. The likes of Joel Piroe, Brenden Aaronson, Dan James, and Manor Solomon have been his automatic starters when fit, but their form has dipped. Be it stubbornness or blind faith in the team that he picks, Farke is not making near enough changes.

That includes game-to-game or substitutes early enough for in-game tactical switches. For example, Willy Gnonto can’t be doing more to start at the moment, and yet he is only handed fleeting minutes for the most part. There are other areas he could rotate, but Farke’s front four have combined for just two goals since Sheffield United.

During the spell from Burnley to that game against the Blades, they had 18 in six games. Something isn’t working and Farke needs to make alterations. He tried to make some on Saturday but it was too soon for Ethan Ampadu and wrong to leave out Ao Tanaka and Junior Firpo. A new balance needs to be struck and that means dropping some players who have been vital components of the campaign to this point.

This is a 46-game slog of a season and he has the required squad depth to rotate more. Had the season ended after 34 or 38 games like most leagues, Leeds would have won it but tired legs and inconsistent performances are a massive problem now at the 39-game mark and with at least seven still to play.

The mentality of the Leeds team 

One way or another, the zip and spark in Leeds’ performances has faded. It’s possible that a collapse akin to last season is occurring. That could be down to genuine mental fragility, or weakness, or simply just some kind of mental fatigue and tiredness that has set in. 

Whichever descriptive you wish to use, there is some level of mental burnout that has hit the players of late. For a team with more late goals than any other in the Championship, they have somewhat lost their nerve. It could be rediscovered but it feels like it’s on the verge of collapse. 

The late, late wins against Sunderland and Sheffield United feel like a distant memory, but the inevitability and relentlessness of the side during that spell was not in question. However, it certainly is now. Swansea was one of Leeds’ worst home performances of the campaign, especially in the first half.

It’s come at the worst possible time and a feeling of deja vu from last season is overwhelming most fans, meaning they must arrest it quickly; but physically and mentally, some areas of this team look spent. Following the six-match run of February wins, the performances have incrementally dropped off for weeks. 

• READ MORE: Championship play-off dates, fixtures, and teams in Premier League promotion mix

What changes could Farke make to save Leeds’ season? Will they work?

If Leeds can recapture that control between both boxes and their ruthlessness going forward, then they will likely win the league. The problem is that Leeds are not in a position to allow players to simply play through bad form, which forces Farke to be more proactive. The good news for Leeds is there is still time to fix the issues, and they are not as over-reliant on two players like they were last season.

Crysencio Summerville and Georginio Rutter were the answer, but the depth and options are better now. However, being this reticent to rotate creates a vicious circle for the non-playing players as well, because it puts pressure on their performances. Its also fair to say that a little complacency can kick into starting players that know they’ll never be dropped, which is why Farke has to change some things in his line-up.

The solution is not perfect as to react to a dip is by playing demotivated, over pressured, underplayed players. Although many will feel as though they have a point to prove, it is still at a less than ideal stage of the season, when they will have to put the team on their back at the crunch period of the campaign and the business end of the season.

An environment that would be more conducive to players performing optimally when rotated in would be during the regular portions of the season. But Leeds are desperate for something to click in these final games. And, at the same time, it wouldn’t take a lot for this team to go up a gear and find that extra level.

It’s fair to assume that Gnonto’s recent cameos highlight why he alone would likely raise the attacking output by 10-15% at the moment. That, plus Darlow, might be enough to improve Leeds’ levels at the two most important ends of the pitch. They do need one or two players to just put the team on their back for a couple of games, and remind the regular starters of who they are and what they are about.