Leeds United stat presents worrying picture for Daniel Farke’s promotion hopes

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Leeds United were pegged back late on against Swansea City on Saturday afternoon, with Daniel Farke’s side conceding a 96th minute equaliser at Elland Road.

A pair of Illan Meslier mistakes left Leeds fans fuming. That’s after experts predicted an easy Leeds win, while the key stats were also outlined that pointed towards a Leeds victory on Saturday against a struggling Swansea side.

Position	Team	Played MP	Won W	Drawn D	Lost L	For GF	Against GA	Diff GD	Points Pts
1	Sheff UtdSheffield Utd	39	26	7	6	56	29	27	83
2	LeedsLeeds	39	23	12	4	78	27	51	81
3	BurnleyBurnley	39	22	15	2	53	11	42	81
4	SunderlandSunderland	39	20	12	7	56	37	19	72
5	CoventryCoventry	39	17	8	14	56	51	5	59
6	West BromWest Brom	39	13	18	8	48	35	13	57

The Whites remain inside the top two with favourable fixtures, but Sheffield United and Burnley wins against Coventry City and Bristol City respectively has made things tight at the summit of the Championship table.

In many ways, a result like that felt timely after supercomputers had predicted promotion for Farke’s side from the Championship last week during the international break. There is evidently still work to do and twists and turns to come for each side in the mix, though.

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Dismal Leeds stat emerges with Burnley and Sheffield United form improving

A big problem for Leeds and Daniel Farke is that the know they must escape the play-offs, given their record at Wembley. That goes back to last season when they were defeated by Southampton in the final last May.

The Whites have done well to rebuild in the summer in spite of that, with Farke building a well-oiled machine for much of the season so far. Not long ago, Leeds won six in a row and conceded just two goals in that period. However, the good form hasn’t lasted.

With each side in the top three aiming to gain the financial reward of automatic promotion, but also possibly be among the highest points tallies in Championship history, that feels like a far cry from recent Leeds performances since the win against Sheffield United.

A run of just one win in five, including three draws and defeat to Portsmouth, has meant Leeds have relinquished their grip on top spot. Prior to this weekend, Leeds had been top for 16 matchdays in a row, with 18 in total since the start of the campaign — more than any other team.

The worrying stat from LUFC Data is that Leeds have allowed the other two to close up seven points on them during this run of difficult form, with Burnley and Sheffield United securing vital points (13) at the crunch time of the campaign during the business end of the season.

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Leeds United must bring in Karl Darlow for Illan Meslier

He’s not solely responsible for their downturn in form, but Meslier’s impact on the team is a net negative. Darlow has recently established himself as Wales’ No.1 as well, highlighting his recent consistency and competency for the national side.

The Whites may have kept numerous clean sheets this term, but they have been in spite of Meslier’s presence. The backline appear to be frustrated and nervous playing in front of him as well.

As the data shows, Meslier is performing poorly in one of the key metrics for evaluating goalkeepers. Farke can mitigate against the errors by simply choosing Darlow over the Frenchman against Luton Town on Saturday.