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Opinion

Worrying trend highlights Venky’s mistake at Blackburn Rovers, it will cost them the play-offs

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It has been an incredibly disappointing start to life at Ewood Park for new head coach Valerien Ismael and Blackburn Rovers’ faint play-off hopes are now fading.

Rovers were in the top six when John Eustace departed for relegation-threatened Derby County in February. Interim boss David Lowe gained back-to-back wins over West Brom and Plymouth Argyle to strengthen their grip on the top six spots, but it hasn’t taken long for things to unravel.

Position Team Played MP Won W Drawn D Lost L For GF Against GA Diff GD Points Pts
5 CoventryCoventry38 17 8 13 55 48 7 59
6 West BromWest Brom38 13 18 7 48 34 14 57
7 Bristol CityBristol City38 14 15 9 49 41 8 57
8 MiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough38 15 9 14 57 48 9 54
9 BlackburnBlackburn38 15 7 16 42 40 2 52
10 WatfordWatford38 15 7 16 47 51 -4 52
11 MillwallMillwall38 13 12 13 37 39 -2 51
12 Sheffield WednesdaySheffield Wednesday38 14 9 15 53 59 -6 51

After Eustace made the shock decision to leave the play-off hopefuls, Ismael was appointed as his replacement, with the 49-year-old signing a three-and-half-year contract at Ewood Park. Perhaps the international break has come at a good time following a difficult start.

Blackburn suffered their third consecutive defeat under Ismael as they were beaten 2-1 at home by struggling Cardiff City, with goals from Yousef Salech and Yakou Meite coming either side of Yuki Ohashi’s leveller to seal the points for the Bluebirds.

Blackburn Rovers v Wolverhampton Wanderers - Emirates FA Cup Fourth Round
Photo by Carl Recine/Getty Images

The Venky’s should have fought tooth and nail to retain John Eustace at Blackburn

Valerien Ismael came into the fold as the Blackburn hierarchy’s chosen Eustace replacement in the aftermath of a 3-0 defeat at Swansea City, but after four games in charge, the Frenchman has only managed to pick up one point out of a possible 12.

That singular point came in the form of a 96th-minute Andi Weimann goal in a 1-1 draw at home against Norwich City during his first game. Their fortunes have flipped with Eustace and Derby, with their former boss recently winning three in a row to ease their relegation fears somewhat.

Blackburn improved immensely under Eustace last season, securing their survival during the last few league games of the season after huge away wins at Leeds United and Leicester City. Therefore, there was hope that they could kick on, but not many anticipated that they would break into the top six.

They were perhaps punching above their weight somewhat, with expectations quickly heightening as the season developed. Losing Eustace was a sucker punch but they were still well-placed to challenge. And although the league table implies that they have a chance, not many fans are anticipating a late charge during the play-off run-in, such is the level of top six competition.

MetricValue
Goals3
Goals against6
xG 3.8
xG against5.0
Clean sheets0
Blackburn Rovers four-game stats under Val Ismael – Fbref

The above may be a small sample size but it highlights how difficult his start has been, with poor underlying numbers. Blackburn are also 20th in the league table when taken from the turn of the year, following a run of just four wins but nine defeats in 15 Championship outings.

Regardless of other issues, that is not good enough for a play-off chasing team. The disappointment will stem from the games as well, which were all winnable for Ismael and Lowe before him against Swansea. Their xGD of -1.2 in those games will be bitterly disappointing for supporters, as much as the actual results themselves.

  • Championship
    • BlackburnBlackburn

      1|2

      CardiffCardiff

  • Championship
    • Stoke CityStoke City

      1|0

      BlackburnBlackburn

  • Championship
    • DerbyDerby

      2|1

      BlackburnBlackburn

  • Championship
    • BlackburnBlackburn

      1|1

      NorwichNorwich

  • Championship
    • SwanseaSwansea

      3|0

      BlackburnBlackburn

On the other hand, Eustace’s decision to swap a promotion push for a relegation battle was widely questioned, and after the 45-year-old lost his first three games in charge of Derby, it looked as though he had made a big mistake. However, the Rams picked up their first win against his former side earlier this month, and they have followed that up with further maximums.

The Venky’s may have put forward some funds to improve the side in January, but Eustace was the glue and their promotion hopes continue to fade. Blackburn are now ninth in the Championship table, five points from the play-off places, and it does not get much easier for the Lancashire outfit with a trip to Portsmouth and then two play-off challengers to come after the international break.

  • Championship
    • PortsmouthPortsmouth

      BlackburnBlackburn

  • Championship
    • BlackburnBlackburn

      MiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough

  • Championship
    • BlackburnBlackburn

      Sheffield WednesdaySheffield Wednesday

Despite the six signings, talkSPORT journalist Alex Crook revealed Eustace is believed to have made the decision to leave Blackburn as he felt he had not been properly supported by the club’s hierarchy, and that added more fuel to the fire for supporters who already held long-standing grievances against the ownership.

The likes of Cauley Woodrow, Emmanuel Dennis, Augustus Kargbo, Dion Sanderson, Yuri Ribeiro, and Adam Forshaw were acquired on loan or permanently to bolster their ranks, but their impact has largely been minimal and Eustace’s decision has been vindicated.

Had they made funds more readily available and acquired a few more star quality players, or even fought tooth and nail with greater future financial incentives for Eustace, then it’s likely he would still be in charge now and they would not have lost their spark and solidity.

Blackburn Rovers v Wolverhampton Wanderers - Sky Bet Championship
Photo by Mick Walker – CameraSport via Getty Images

The feeling towards the Venky’s intensifies after years of disappointment at Blackburn

The frustration for Blackburn supporters is how quickly that optimism and feel-good factor has quickly dissipated under Ismael. He is now overseeing the destruction of the club’s play-off hopes, which will be much to the frustration of fans — but more so with the Venky’s, with many hoping they sell.

Indeed, such is the current discontent at Ewood Park that fan protests are planned for later dates, with supporters already feeling restless over Ismael’s poor form so far and with a negative atmosphere now building on matchdays at Ewood Park.

Anger is usually directed at absent owners the Venky’s the most but it isn’t an environment conducive to positive results for Ismael to get things moving in the right direction. If anything, the opposite is more likely and the data suggests as much as well.

SeasonDivisionFinishing Position
2010/11Premier League15th
2011/12Premier League19th (relegated)
2012/13Championship17th
2013/14Championship8th
2014/15Championship9th
2015/16Championship15th
2016/17Championship22nd (relegated)
2017/18League One2nd (promoted)
2018/19Championship15th
2019/20Championship11th
2020/21Championship15th
2021/22Championship8th
2022/23Championship7th
2023/24Championship19th
Blackburn Rovers league positions during the Venky’s tenure

The Frenchman may be the scapegoat and the fall guy for the frustration, when the Venky’s are far more to blame for years of decline largely. It’s a lose-lose situation for Ismael from here, even if he has not delivered whatsoever thus far, because he is not to blame for what has gone on for many years prior to his arrival.

Had they supported Eustace more than they did, there is every chance that Rovers would be in a stronger position and in with a real shout at the play-offs. As it is, there lack of ambition and fight to retain his services will cost them — and possibly Ismael, too.

Eustace has steadied the ship with Blackburn but the club must be backed by the board more frequently irrespective of who is in charge, as it took far too long to get anything done in January and business was left late — hence his frustration and departure.