Championship expert tips Plymouth Argyle to bounce straight back from League One next year on one condition

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Barring a miracle on the final day of the season, Plymouth Argyle will be playing in League One next year, but they can thrive in the third tier.

Plymouth have been flirting with relegation all season, and despite a genuinely impressive resurgence in recent weeks, they look doomed to go down now.

Position	Team	Played MP	Won W	Drawn D	Lost L	For GF	Against GA	Diff GD	Points Pts
19	DerbyDerby	45	13	10	22	48	56	-8	49
20	PrestonPreston	45	10	19	16	46	57	-11	49
21	LutonLuton	45	13	10	22	42	64	-22	49
22	Hull CityHull City	45	12	12	21	43	53	-10	48
23	PlymouthPlymouth	45	11	13	21	50	86	-36	46
24	CardiffCardiff	45	9	17	19	46	69	-23	44

Due to their awful goal difference of -36, Plymouth would need to score roughly 20 goals on the final day of the Championship season and hope that the teams around them lose, too.

Even the most ardent Argyle fan knows what’s coming, then, but dropping out of the Championship doesn’t have to be a total disaster for the South Coast club.

• READ MORE: How Leeds United can relegate Plymouth and win the league over Burnley on Championship final day

Miron Muslic has to stay if Plymouth Argyle are to win promotion next season

In fact, according to the hosts of the Second Tier podcast, Plymouth can look forward to a successful campaign in League One next year, but they need to navigate the summer wisely and not make any big mistakes like they did last year.

Justin Peach said: “I think Muslic, based on his Championship record, he’s been brilliant. I think he gives you confidence that they can bounce back quite quickly. I’d consider them favourites going into League One anyway.

“I think the way Muslic sets his team up does suit League One. I still feel like they need seven or eight players at the very least, and certainly better operators in the final third. Plus, replacements for Mustapha Bundu and Ryan Hardie, who I expect to be subject to bids in the summer.”

Referencing past managerial decisions like Wayne Rooney being appointed Plymouth manager, Peach went on to discuss Miron Muslic’s future at the club and how that will impact Argyle next season.

He added: “Despite making bad decisions on managers over the past 12 months, they’ve got a good one in Miron Muslic, and I don’t expect them to make the same mistake should he move on this summer.

“They’re a well-run club, despite mistakes, so I would back them to bounce back quite quick.”

Co-host Ryan Dilks agreed, chipping in with, “If Muslic stays I would give them a great chance of bouncing back. Keep in mind, they won League One last time, with not the biggest of budgets.

“Now, they’re going back down with a lot more money, from being in the Championship and from player sales, and they’ve shown in the past that they can spend it very well… there’s a lot of positives for Plymouth.

“As long as there’s not wholesale changes over the summer, I could definitely see them being back in the Championship in 12 months.”

• READ MORE: Burnley have just been handed a lifeline in Championship title race as incredible statistic emerges

Where would Plymouth be if Miron Muslic had been in charge from day one?

Plymouth endured half a season with Wayne Rooney in charge, and given the way Muslic has turned things around, it really is bittersweet to realise that if he had been appointed sooner, Argyle would likely have stayed up this year.

Since taking over in January, Muslic has won seven and drawn five of his 20 matches in the Championship, losing just eight times. That’s a points-per-game ratio of 1.30, and we’ve done the math to work out what position Plymouth would be in if they had been coached by Muslic since gameweek one.

Turns out, that ratio over 46 games would have delivered Plymouth 59.8 points this season. Let’s call that 59 to be harsh, and Muslic would be looking at potentially a 12th-placed finish, around the likes of Sheffield Wednesday and Swansea.

Position	Team	Played MP	Won W	Drawn D	Lost L	For GF	Against GA	Diff GD	Points Pts
8	BlackburnBlackburn	45	19	8	18	52	47	5	65
9	MiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough	45	18	10	17	64	54	10	64
10	West BromWest Brom	45	14	19	12	52	44	8	61
11	SwanseaSwansea	45	17	9	19	48	53	-5	60
12	Sheffield WednesdaySheffield Wednesday	45	15	12	18	59	68	-9	57

Muslic has praised his players for their effort over the last few weeks, in which time they have won four of their last six, including wins against Sheffield United and Preston North End. Sadly, though, it will not be enough.

Even Muslic himself knows he’d have saved Plymouth if he had been hired sooner, but hopefully he can stick around for another year at least and guide them to League One glory.