How Leeds United can relegate Plymouth and win the league over Burnley on Championship final day

Add as preferred source on Google

Leeds United are heading to Devon to face Plymouth Argyle on Saturday, with the Whites almost promoted and the Pilgrims on the brink of relegation.

They will almost certainly be playing two leagues apart next season, but the final day of the campaign is a chance to go out with flourish for both teams after a gruelling 46 games of the regular league season.

Position	Team	Played MP	Won W	Drawn D	Lost L	For GF	Against GA	Diff GD	Points Pts
1	LeedsLeeds	45	28	13	4	93	29	64	97
2	BurnleyBurnley	45	27	16	2	66	15	51	97
3	Sheff UtdSheffield Utd	45	28	7	10	62	35	27	89
4	SunderlandSunderland	45	21	13	11	58	43	15	76
5	Bristol CityBristol City	45	17	16	12	57	53	4	67
6	CoventryCoventry	45	19	9	17	62	58	4	66

Leeds’ motivation is obvious, with a Championship title on the line. Not only that, but a sixth flawless win in a row will also seal a 100-point season for Daniel Farke’s side ahead of Burnley.

They were able to celebrate promotion in style on Monday night during their demolition of Bristol City. Meanwhile, it appears Plymouth’s recent resurgence has been left just too late to escape danger.

• READ MORE: Largie Ramazani tells Leeds United teammate to sign new contract in cheeky social media post 

The permutations involved in Plymouth Argyle vs Leeds United

Argyle have won five of the last nine and only lost three times recently in that run. Mathematically, it has given them a chance heading into final day. Though, Miron Muslic’s men know they must now win against the might of Leeds and have other results go their way to do so.

Leeds are also in good form recently, having gone unbeaten in the last nine by winning six and drawing three. They have lost just one of the last 27 league games in that time and during their relentless march to promotion.

But Plymouth is a tricky away fixture and Farke knows they have to put in a ‘perfect away performance’ display to win. Here, we look at the various permutations of that ahead of the final day in the Championship.

If Leeds win against Plymouth, by any margin, then it would require at least a 15 goal margin of victory for Burnley against play-off chasing Millwall. In the process, that would relegate Plymouth to League One.

If Leeds draw against Plymouth, they will still be relegated, and Burnley can win the title with a win at Turf Moor against Alex Neil and co. but a draw or Millwall win would also seal the title for Leeds.

If Leeds lose to Plymouth, then they will require one of Luton Town, Preston North End, or Derby County to lose heavily. It is virtually impossible for them men to survive unless they beat Leeds by around 15 goals or more or unless Luton are hammered heavily by West Brom to swing the 14 goals required.

Position	Team	Played MP	Won W	Drawn D	Lost L	For GF	Against GA	Diff GD	Points Pts
19	DerbyDerby	45	13	10	22	48	56	-8	49
20	PrestonPreston	45	10	19	16	46	57	-11	49
21	LutonLuton	45	13	10	22	42	64	-22	49
22	Hull CityHull City	45	12	12	21	43	53	-10	48
23	PlymouthPlymouth	45	11	13	21	50	86	-36	46
24	CardiffCardiff	45	9	17	19	46	69	-23	44

Leeds could still win the title in that outcome, but Millwall would have to record a league double over the Clarets to do so. Leeds simply have to match Scott Parker’s team in terms of their result in order to win the title for the second time in five years.

However, beating Plymouth handsomely enough could also set a new goal difference record, although their record in away games is not as strong as their stunning Elland Road form this season.

• READ MORE: Simon Jordan tells Leeds to say ‘goodbye’ to Daniel Farke ahead of Premier League return

Leeds United’s record against the bottom half of the Championship

Argyle’s record against the Top 10 at home this season is played nine, with six wins, two draws, and just one loss. In the process, they have scored 22 goals as well. That offers hope to both them and Burnley, but not much.

Leeds have dropped points in 17 games this season, including in nine of their 20 games against the top 10 in the division. That means they have only dropped points in eight of 25 games games against teams below West Brom in the table.

Leeds’ record against the bottom half is outstanding, having dropped just 15 points against teams 12th and below. That is an astonishing 54 points from 69 available and enough for 14th in the league without even including results against the top half. One defeat to Portsmouth is their only major blemish.