How many points Leeds United and Burnley need to gain promotion if Sheffield United win, lose, or draw vs Cardiff

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Leeds United and Burnley are both just a matter of points away from promotion, even if Sheffield United win every game between now and the end of the season.

They each need a final push to get over the line now, although Chris Wilder and co. look as though they will have to contend with the play-offs, where they have a dreadful record. Despite Leeds looking like falling apart, Sheffield United have instead taken on that mantle to the delight of opposition fans.

Position	Team	Played MP	Won W	Drawn D	Lost L	For GF	Against GA	Diff GD	Points Pts
1	LeedsLeeds	42	25	13	4	82	29	53	88
2	BurnleyBurnley	42	24	16	2	57	13	44	88
3	Sheff UtdSheffield Utd	42	26	7	9	57	33	24	83
4	SunderlandSunderland	42	21	13	8	57	38	19	76
5	Bristol CityBristol City	42	16	16	10	54	45	9	64
6	CoventryCoventry	42	18	9	15	59	54	5	63
7	West BromWest Brom	42	14	18	10	51	39	12	60
8	MiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough	42	17	9	16	61	51	10	60
9	MillwallMillwall	42	16	12	14	41	41	0	60

The final four-game run-in could have more twists and turns to come yet, but the landscape at the top became clearer this weekend after Sheffield United lost their third game in a week. Plymouth Argyle, Millwall, and Oxford United have done the damage.

Experts have outlined that the Clarets are playing their best football of the season, while others believe the top three’s goalkeepers are the difference between one another. Now, it could all be immaterial, with Leeds and Burnley likely to maintain their places without a serious collapse at this late stage.

• READ MORE: Sheffield United comparison made as Burnley ace labelled ‘most underrated in the promotion battle’

The outcome of Sheffield United against Cardiff City will have a huge impact on Leeds and Burnley

Many experts expected things to go to the wire at the top but it could all be over this week. There are four games remaining and the Blades and Burnley play one another on matchday 44 as well, which could also prove to be pivotal yet but Burnley avoiding defeat would all but end Wilder’s hopes.

Sky pundits are now worried about the Blades and you wouldn’t be altogether surprised if their horrendous run of form were to continue against Cardiff City. The likes of Oxford and Plymouth are also fighting for their lives and claimed a scalp against them.

Mathematically, we know the maximum they can now achieve is 95 points, albeit with a far inferior goal difference to the other two sides. That means that Leeds and Burnley will be promoted from the Championship if they get seven more points, no matter what.

It could be far less than that, though. Every dropped point from the Blades makes the total required for Leeds and Burnley lower. We have figured out each of the permutations for you ahead of their clash at Bramall Lane against Cardiff, here.

What if Sheffield United win against Cardiff City?

Perhaps the most self-explanatory — if Sheffield United win, then both Leeds and Burnley will be aiming to get to 95 points, or 96 mathematically. If they win against Watford and Oxford United respectively, then just four points will be needed from the final three games.

If either Leeds or Burnley drop points, then a Blades win tightens things up again at the top. That is particularly pertinent from a Burnley perspective, adding extra pressure ahead of Monday’s decisive showdown at Turf Moor.

What if Sheffield United draw against Cardiff City?

A draw for Sheffield United would mean the total required for promotion drops to 93 points, or 94 mathematically. It would mean two wins for Leeds sends them up automatically against Stoke City on Monday at Elland Road, before the Blades even travel to Burnley.

That is an exciting prospect for the Whites, who were unable to celebrate their last promotion from the division inside the ground due to COVID-19 and lockdown. A draw against Cardiff would be added motivation for them, with the clash coming before either of Leeds’ Easter Weekend games.

Burnley could then beat Sheffield United on their own patch on Monday to secure promotion with their rivals present. That would be even sweeter after a season-long battle with them at the top. Of course, if Leeds drop points before then, a Burnley win would aid their cause, too.

What if Sheffield United lose against Cardiff City?

The dream scenario for both Burnley and Leeds is a Cardiff win to compound the misery in South Yorkshire, which would make promotion incredibly close without them even playing. A fourth consecutive league defeat for the Blades would see the total required drop to 92 points, or 93 mathematically.

For both Burnley and Leeds, they would need a maximum of four points. Should they each do their jobs on Friday and win to get their Easter off to the perfect start, they would leave themselves on the brink of promotion in a situation that would be near-impossible to mess up in.

A draw or loss for the Blades would essentially make it a two-horse race for two positions, which would see a title battle emerge. Both Leeds and Burnley will want some sort of jeopardy heading into the final fixtures, which the title battle would no doubt bring.

• READ MORE: Championship play-off dates, fixtures, and teams in Premier League promotion mix

Can Leeds or Burnley compete in the Premier League?

Of course, the financial reward is a major benefit of promotion. However, every single side in promotion contention will be concerned at the state of the bottom of the league above considering how dominant each promoted side was in the second tier last term.

This year, we are set for the worst bottom three in Premier League history, which is a huge concern for English football after last season was the same issue. Leeds and Burnley could still yet manage two of the highest points totals ever, but know they will not find getting to 40 and beyond very easy.

A deeper look into the gap between the Premier League and Championship suggests it will be extremely difficult without cut-throat decisions and plenty of smart recruitment and squad overhaul. Burnley have already been tipped to struggle by some experts but perhaps Leeds have the best chance.

That said, it will be a huge challenge to even finish 17th, let alone as high as the comfort of mid-table in 13th. Leeds have the defensive and attacking fundamentals which simply need adding to and around.